Johnston] NAVAHO POPULATION 155 



however, tend to cluster toward the lower limit of this postulated 

 range. 



The general impression that is gained from these comparisons is 

 that the vital rates derived from reported births and deaths for the 

 Navaho population are generally unreliable, at least until the past 

 few years. While the crude death rates assume a fairly consistent 

 pattern after World War II, the crude birth rates appear to remain 

 seriously deficient at least until 1956. 



Further indication of the unreliability of the reporting of annual 

 births among the Navaho can be seen in a comparison of child-woman 

 and infant-child ratios as calculated from the same 31 age distributions 

 that are given in table 31. The child-woman ratios for all 31 of these 

 age distributions, together with infant-child ratios for 20 of the 31, 

 are given in table 32. 



If we consider, first, the ratios for the Navaho populations prior to 

 1920, we find a child- woman ratio around 1,000 in 4 of the 6 available 

 Navaho age distributions. Both of the earlier Ramah ratios are over 

 1,000, while those of the Fort Defiance and San Juan Agency Navahos 

 in 1915 and 1916, respectively, approach 1,000. The reader should 

 note that the infant-child ratios for the latter two populations are low 

 relative to the "expected" ratio somewhat in excess of 20. If the num- 

 ber of infants reported in these latter two populations was adjusted 

 so as to produce the "expected" ratio of infants to children under 5, 

 thQ resultant child-woman ratios would also exceed 1,000.^ 



The remaining two ratios for this period are considerably lower 

 than the four discussed above. That for the Navaho population in the 

 1910 census is Y99, while that of the Canoncito and Puertocito bands 

 in 1915-20 is lower than any other Navaho child- woman ratios except- 

 ing those obtained from the enrolled population in 1957. The general 

 impression to be gained from these ratios, most of which fall within a 

 range from 800 to 1,000, is that the Navaho population was experienc- 

 ing high fertility at this time.^ 



^ An explanation of the expectation that the ratio of infants to children under 5 should, 

 in the absence of underreporting of births, be at least 20 percent, is provided in footnote 3, 

 table 32. 



• A simple calculation serves to illustrate this conclusion. First, the number of vromen 

 aged 15 to 49 (as shown In table 32) amount to 20 to 25 percent of the total population 

 (as shown in table 28); for the Navaho populations in this period. Second, a conservative 

 estimate for the mortality of Navaho children under 5 at this time would suggest that 

 their number would amount, at most, to about 10 percent of the total number of live births 

 occurring during the preceding 5 years. Third, given a child-woman ratio of 900, 1,000 

 women would tlien have experienced approximately 1,000 live births during the preceding 

 5 years, for an average of 200 births per year. Fourth, assuming that these women 

 constitute 22.5 percent of the total population, the resultant crude birth rate of this popu- 

 lation comes to 45 per 1,000. Even allowing for a substantial margin of error in these 

 calculations, the implied crude birth rate would probably fall within the range of 40 to 

 50 per 1,000. 



