Improved planning and scheduling of commercial vegetable, potato, and 
fruit production: * Millions 
Onkthertarms Omlye = oe ees ee et er ee ee a ee we $185 
Including processing and marketing cost____--_-_-_--------------__-- 185 
Better planning of cattle and hog production____________________ pe sm see BS 450 
FS fea aaa a he Me Pn oe OYA We A EAT eae eel EO eat 2, 600 
1The $370,000,000 figure reported here for savings on commercial vegetables, potato, 
and fruit production is to be contrasted with the $500,000,000 reported in NASCO’s report. 
The $370,000,000 figure was derived by reworking basic numbers NASCO reported and 
applying their percentages to derive savings. It is not clear exactly how they derived the 
$500,000,000 estimate, but it was more than compensated by rounding their total to 
$2,000,000,000. 
An interaction problem immediately arises with regard to the 
flood control estimates; clearly, if NASCO estimates are correct and 
the oceanography program NASCO projects are adopted, Corps of 
Engineers’ estimates on savings to be obtained from flood control 
installations should be adjusted downward in some cases. Further- 
more, for an estimate of the net social benefit to the economy, it would 
have to be assumed that increments to the flood control program 
planned by the Corps of Engineers over the next few years that could 
be expected to yield or duplicate identical benefits would be eliminated 
from Corps of Engineers’ budgets; whether or not this elimination 
would occur would depend, of course, upon a number of uncertainties, 
some of a political nature. It is also possible that the Corps of 
Engineers’ program would be a cheaper solution to flood control than 
an oceanographic program. Indeed in all probability the optimal 
or lower cost solution involves some of both programs. 
Similar detailed criticisms could be made with regard to other 
estimated savings. Given these conflicting considerations, it is very 
difficult to say what actual savings would result from improvements 
on long-range weather forecasting. With conservatism, the $2 billion 
annual estimate reported by NASCO, might be reduced to one-half 
billion annually undiscounted or approximately $150 million on a 
discounted average annual basis. The important point is that even 
this very conservative figure is quite large compared to the present 
annual outlay of $14.5 million on oceanographic efforts in weather 
forecasting. Of course, this is only part of the Government’s effort to 
improve weather forecasts or environmental control. Still, potential 
gains seem large enough to justify at least the present expenditure and 
probably to justify an increase. 
A somewhat more cautious conclusion seems warranted for Govern- 
ment-oceanographic expenditures except for surveys and other con- 
ventional services, aimed at developing new sources of raw materials. 
59 
