188 OCEANOGRAPHY 1961 — PHASE 3 



What we are trying to do primarily is to keep the risk rate down 

 as much as we can. Even in the very best circumstances in the oil 

 industry, for example, in wildcat drilling, we hit any oil at all about 

 once in five times. We get a good commercial show maybe once in a 

 hundred times. We get a really good find maybe once in a thousand. 



Now these are pretty poor odds, but they would be an awful lot 

 worse if it were not for the geophysical profession. 



Mr. Pelly. I live on an island where we have 5,000 or 6,000 people. 

 Probably 90 percent of us think that we have a man with real powers 

 to locate with a willow wand where there is water. 



Dr. Blake. Well, the willow wanderers are with us, and while I 

 do not attribute any magic to the willow itself, I will say that there 

 are many people who, through an innate empirical knowledge of 

 surface geology experience, do get a feeling better than just throwing 

 darts at a wallboard as to where water might be. A lot can still be 

 done with surface geology, but there is a limit to how deep you can 

 extrapolate what you see on the surface. 



Well, to continue: Up to the present time, or fairly recently, at 

 least, the field of oceanography has been almost exclusively a concern 

 of the Government, a few universities, and the fishing industry. 



Now I am making some rather general statements. There are ex- 

 ceptions, of course. But by and large, most of the active interest in 

 the field of oceanography has been restricted to the Government, the 

 universities, some of the universities, that is, and, as I say, the fishing 

 industry. 



Now our interest in the Government program in inner space, as it 

 is being called now, is somewhat broader than just oceanography. 

 We have rather broad interest in earth science, as you can readily 

 imagine, and specifically the geophysical industry has become quite 

 interested in the VELA-Uniform program, which is concerned with 

 the seismic detection of underground explosions. 



Now wh^ is it that our interest in this field of oceanography, the 

 VELA-Uniform, and so on, has increased rather rapidly in the last, 

 oh, let us say, 2 or 3 years ? Partly, I think, it is a generally increas- 

 ing awareness in the industry of the Government's needs in this field. 

 There has been more publicity about it. We have heard more about it. 



But I think that our interest has been aroused in large part through 

 the efforts of one man. This is Dr. Charles C. Bates, who is now 

 program director for VELA-Uniform. He is by profession an ocean- 

 ographer. And he has been actively seeking, going out and beating 

 the bushes for industry support, on the basis of a national defense 

 need. He has been making us aware of this problem. 



Our interest has been aroused almost completely on this basis alone 

 of the national need for help. 



With very few exceptions, we have very little economic incentive to 

 go into the field of general oceanography or related problems of this 

 nature. I would like to make a few more remarks on this subject 

 later in more detail. 



Now, Dr. Bates, when I first me him, was in the Office of the Chief 

 of Naval Operations for Development. This was about 2 years ago. 

 At that time, he began trying to arouse the mutual interest of the Navy 

 and the oil industry, the geophysical industry, in the antisubmarine 

 warfare program, one phase of oceanography. 



