133 



Appendix 11 



What's ahead. 



Petroleum Operations in the Sea--- 



1980 and Beyond' 



Dr. Richard J. Howe 



Esso Production Research Co., Houston 



SUMMARY 



During the past 22 years, the petroleum industry 

 has developed the capability to drill for and produce 

 oil and gas from the Continental shelves of the world. 

 Exploratory wells have been drilled in 640 ft. of water 

 and huge production platforms stand in water 340 ft. 

 deep. By year-end, wells will be drilled in the Santa 

 Barbara Channel in water depths ranging up to 1,300 

 ft. If these wells discover substantial reserves, suit- 

 able production facilities will be built to bring the oil 

 and gas to market. 



In a development which is accelerating so rapidly, 

 it is indeed difficult to predict the status of offshore 

 petroleum operations in 1980. It appears, however, 

 that the water depths in which the petroleum Industry 

 will be operating in that year will be governed by 

 economics rather than technical factors. By that time 

 the industry should havetthe capability to explore for 

 and produce hydrocarbon reserves in almost any 

 ocean area of the world; however, there are many 

 alternate sources of energy which will probably enter 

 the market before petroleum deposits are produced In 

 ultradeep water. 



It is possible to extrapolate some current trends to 

 1980. It is quite clear that the use of floating drilling 

 rigs will continue to expand as the industry moves 

 into deeper water. Of the 350 mobile units operating 

 in 1980, approximately 60 percent of them will be 

 floaters compared with 35 percent today. There is also 

 a possibility that a small number of undersea or re- 

 motely controlled drilling rigs will be in operation in 

 1980. An increasing number of wells will be installed 

 on the sea floor. Many deepwater fields will be located 

 completely below water. As equipment for these fields 

 is perfected, it will also be used in shallower water. In 

 1980, oil production from offshore fields will total 20 

 million barrels of oil per day, representing approxi- 

 mately one-third of total Free World production, com- 

 pared with 5 million barrels and 17 percent today. 

 Total investment In offshore petroleum resources will 

 then stand at $55 billion, compared with $18 billion 

 today. 



Before discussing the future of ofTshore petroleum 

 operations, it would be appropriate to review what has 

 happened in the past and where we stand today. 



Several years ago, Lewis Weeks, a leading petroleum 

 consultant, made a comprehensive study to delermine 

 which areas of the world might be considered prospective 



for the accumulation of oil and gas. He estimated that of 

 the 57 million square miles of land surface, approxi- 

 mately 18 might contain oil and gas deposits. Of the 

 140 million square miles of water-covered area, he pre- 

 dicts that there are 6 million square miles of favorable 

 basin areas out of a total of 10 million square miles out 

 to the 1,000-ft. contour. Thus, 25 percent of the world's 

 prospective basin areas lie offshore in water depths less 

 than 1,000 ft. 



Using this information, plus a number of other im- 

 portant geological factors such as the age and thickness 

 of the sediments, Weeks predicted that the potential 

 world reserves of petroleum are at least 2.2 trillion bar- 

 rels of oil and natural gas liquids. These reserve figures 

 apply to primary recovery. Supplemental recovery op- 

 erations could increase the reserve figures by 50 per- 

 cent or more. As indicated in Fig. 2, approximately 

 one-third of the world's potential reserves lie offshore, 

 yet only a small percentage of these reserves have been 

 discovered to date. This is certainly an important factor 



MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES 



Und are* l*^^' 

 TOTAL AREA = 197 MILLION SO. MILES 



Fig. 1 — Earth Surface Area 



^■Reproduced fx-om Ocean Industry, August 1968, by permission of the publisher. 



