PREDICTION OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT 



In order to plan and execute naval operations effectively, pre- 

 diction capability is required- for such environmental factors as 

 sea ice, which is a formidable hazard to shipping in arctic and 

 antarctic regions; high ocean waves, which endanger the safety 

 and reduce the speed of ships; and thermal structure of the water, 

 which affects ASW capabilities. The Naval Oceanographic Office 

 is engaged in developing methods of predicting environmental 

 conditions and, in turn, together with the Naval Weather Service, 

 applying these techniques to naval operations. 



During the late 1940's and early 1950's, ships operating in the 

 arctic sustained considerable sea ice damage. To reduce this 

 hazard, the Naval Oceanographic Office instituted an experimental 

 ice observation and prediction program in 1952 and 1953. Synoptic 

 ice observations are now acquired by ice reconnaissance aircraft 

 operating throughout most of the North American Arctic, the 

 adjacent Arctic Basin, and selected antarctic areas. Sea ice 

 reports are also furnished by ships and helicopter crews, and 

 satellite pictures are being used experimentally for studying gross 

 features, such as major ice boundaries and large open water 

 features. Ice forecasters analyze these observations and furnish 

 synoptic-type ice predictions covering large regions so that ships 

 and submarines can select areas or tracks most suitable for their 

 mission. The ice prediction service has greatly reduced the amount 

 of ice damage to ships. It has also reduced the amount of ship- 

 time required to complete naval assignments in these remote 

 areas. Short term predictions are primarily the responsibility of 

 the Naval Weather Service Command, while the Naval Oceano- 

 graphic Office prepares forecasts for 15 day periods and longer. 



Sea ice observational techniques are continually being improved, 

 and more synoptic ice data are becoming available each year. 

 Satellites will eventually provide more daily data on ice concen- 

 tration and movement needed for accurate analyses and predictions. 

 New' ice forecasting methods and more knowledge about ice 

 formation, behavior, and deterioration will lead to improved 

 support for planning and conducting surface shipping and sub- 

 marine under-ice operations. 



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