52 
rubber boundary that may soon be stretched by the technological ability to 
exploit oil resources in waters deeper than 200 meters. Attempts, therefore, to 
arrive at narrowly restrictive limits are not likely to be popular. If we choose 
not to go all the way to the mid-points of the oceans, some line will have to 
be worked out that will reflect the genuine interests of the coastal state in its 
adjacent regions. Some of the difficulties of the rubber boundary and some alter- 
native solutions have been expressed very effectively by Ely and need not be 
repeated here.® 
The second problem—that of alternative regimes beyond the limits of the 
coastal state (however those limits are defined)—arises because of the pos- 
sibility of commercial exploitation of oil resources from deep water salt domes 
and of the manganese nodules lying on the floor of the sea in waters 3000 
or more feet in depth. The nodules—high in content of manganese, copper, nickel 
and cobalt—have been known since the voyage of the Challenger. Until re- 
cently, they were viewed as scientific oddities rather than as potential natural 
resources. Now there are glowing accounts of the vastness of the deposits of 
these materials and of the great wealth contained therein. While St. Elmo’s 
fire, rather than economic reality, may be responsible for much of the present 
glow, it is clear that these resources will eventually become of significant 
value to man.” 
For our purposes, five points about the possible exploitation of the manganese 
nodules are significant.* 
1. Commercial attempts to exploit the minerals in deep waters may occur 
within the next five or ten years. This is admittedly a rough guess since most 
potential exploiters are notably cautious in revealing their intentions. 
2. The capital costs are likely to approximate $100 million and technological 
requirements are likely to be high. These factors, together with high risks, will 
limit the number of participants in the near future. 
3. For exploitation to provide a satisfactory return on investment, the area 
under control of the exploiter will probably have to be large, at the least, 1000 
square miles.” Other estimates run up to a circle whose radius is 100 miles—an 
area of more than 30,000 square miles. 
4. There will be considerable variation in the value of particular sites, because 
of wide differences in the density of the nodules on the floor, the metallic con- 
tent of the nodules, the depth of water in which they lie, the topography of the 
floor, etc. The range in value is likely to be as great as that for mineral sites on 
land. 
5. The estimated reasonable scale of production of a single enterprise will be 
extremely large. Brooks has estimated that the amount of manganese thrown on 
the market by a single producer might be so great the price would drop from 90¢ 
per unit (1963 price) to 50¢.% The cobalt price might drop from $1.50 per pound 
to $1.00; and nickel from 70¢ to 65¢ a pound. Two or three producers, of course, 
would have even greater effect. Clearly, exploitation will require considerable 
® Ely, op. cit., supra, N. 2, pp. 000-000. 
10 “On the assumption that an [international] agency would be created in the year 1970, 
that technology will continue to advance, that exploitation will be commensurate with 
the presently known resources of the ocean floor, that exploration rights and leases will 
be granted at rates comparable to those existing at present under national jurisdiction 
and that the continental shelf under national jurisdiction will be defined approximately 
at the 200 meters isobath or at 12 miles from the nearest coast, we believe that by 1975, 
that is, 5 years after an agency is established, gross annual income will reach a level which 
we conservatively estimate at around $6 billion.” Pardo, “Agenda Item 92, Examination 
of the Question of the Reservation Exclusively for Peaceful Purposes of the Sea-Bed 
and the Ocean Floor. and the Sub-Soil Thereof. Underlying the High Seas Beyond the 
Limits of Present National Jurisdiction and the Use of Their Resources in the Interests of 
Mankind (A/6695. A/C.1/952)”, A/C.1/PV.1516, p. 4. Pardo’s figure of $6 billion does 
not appear realistic, even with the acceptance of his assumptions. Oil is not now ex- 
ploited on the U.S. shelf in waters greater than 300 feet in depth. It is not likely that 
oil exploitation in waters below 660 feet (200 meters) will be as significant as that 
implied by Pardo, for many years to come. Furthermore, the assumption that the limits 
of a coastal state’s rights will be at the 200 meter isobath is, I think, unrealistic. Royalty 
incomes from oil beyond the continental slope and from manganese nodules on the sea 
floor are not likely to be significant within the next decade or two. 
1 The most comprehensive discussion of the technology of the exnloitation of manganese 
nodules is in John Mero, The Mineral Resources of the Sea (New York: Hlsevier Publish- 
ing Company, 1965.) For economie analysis see David B. Brooks, Low-Grade and Non- 
conventional Sources of Manganese (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, Ince., 
distributed by the Johns Hopkins Press, 1966), pp. 93-108, and Brooks, ‘‘Deep Sea Man- 
ganese Nodules,’’ a paper presented at the 1967 Law of the Sea Institute Conference, 
University of Rhode Island, Kingston. 
12 Christy, “Alternative Regimes . . .”, op. cit., p. 4. 
13 Brooks, Low-Grade and Nonconventional Sources of Manganese, op. cit., p. 105. 
