43 
The demand for pure metallic manganese (the form expected to be 
marketed from nodule processing) is ‘also very limited. In 1973 only 
about 3 percent of the total manganese consumed in the United States 
was pure metal and projected future demand for this in 1985 will 
range only between 52,000 and 57,000 tons.?° One U.S. firm with cap- 
ability to recover one million tons per year, intending to market man- 
ganese metal, would provide about five times the projected U.S. de- 
mand in 1985. Consequently the impact on the manganese metal market 
will also be significant. 
The markets for copper and nickel are large enough that they will 
likely not be significantly effected by nodule mining in 1985, Three 
U.S. mining companies recovering 7 million tons of. dry nodules per 
year would satisfy 19 percent of the projected U.S. demand for nickel 
in 1985 and only 1.7 percent of the U.S. demand for copper. 
In projecting the value of metals processed from nodules to the U.S. 
economy in 1985 and 2000, the report for the National Ocean Policy 
Study determined a value of $387 million by 1985 and $835 million by 
2000 (Table 8) assuming a drop in the price of cobalt and manganese 
metal compared to Table 6. 
TABLE 8.—PROJECTED MARKET VALUE OF U.S. PRODUCTION OF METALS FROM MANGANESE NODULES IN 1985 
AND 2000 
[In 1973 dollars] 
1985 2000 
Output Output 
(thousand Price _ Value (thousand Price Value 
Metals short tons) (per ton) (millions) short tons) (per ton) (millions) 
Manganese___.-------_- 270.0 $200 $54 540. 0 $200 $108 
Cobaltis=2. S22 iit ew 9.6 1,500 14 19e2 1, 500 28 
Nickles se 22 a 72.0 2, 900 209 144.0 3, 040 438 
Coppelse econ eees- 66. 0 1, 660 110 132.0 1, 980 261 
iG Glee aes ee ee a Se By ees ee ee eee 835 
Source: The Economic Value of the Ocean Resources to the United States, op. cit., p. 26. 
Based on an assumed production of 15 million tons of dry nodules 
by 1985, the United Nations forecasted the impact on the world metals 
market. The United Nations forecast (Table 9) multipled the metal 
recovery per million tons of dry nodules from Table 5 by 15. This 
calculation is valid mainly for nickel and copper which are the major 
metals of interest to the nodule industry. In the case of manganese, 
only two companies or groups have announced their intentions to pro- 
duce this metal; consequently, estimates of manganese production are 
based on only 4 million tons of nodules. Manganese production could 
be higher than 920,000 tons if more companies recover the metal. On 
the other hand, the market for refined manganese is relatively small 
and ferromanganese from nodules cannot be used in steelmaking, as 
are land ores, due to the many trace element impurities in nodules not 
found in land ores. Consequently, since unrefined manganese cannot 
compete with land ores and the additional cost of refining manganese 
from nodules will not justify the return for most companies, man- 
ganese production from nodules may be much lower than the U.N 
23 The Economic Value of the Ocean Resources to the United States, op. cit., p. 24. 
