53 
TABLE 18.—WORLD MINE PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 
[Tons of cobalt] 
Reserves 
Mine production ss 
—_— Grade of ore, 
Country 1973 19741 Quantity percent 
CELT <= aes ir a a grea a 1, 973 2, 000 190, 000 0. 03-0. 06 
Wie OM00). 2 Soe Le ets ey ee eee ee See 1, 567 1, 600 14, 000 1.6 
New Caledonia and Australia!___________.--__-------- 1, 000 740, 000 1-5.0 
A CRN aE ee nnen eA eRe 2 Aes IIS, 16, 625 17, 000 750, 000 .3-2.0 
HEV Ela 5 22 5 Ses eg a ee ee 2, 200 2, 300 380, 000 .05-. 25 
(OL VER LASIK Se ac 1, 400 2, 000 25, 000 a 
Communist countries (except Yugoslavia)______________ 3, 650 3, 700 1600, 000 .J-.1 
Wonldhtotaleeene se seceeme fet oe bot et scan 28, 255 29, 600 2, ,00000=-- =e ees 
1 Estimate. 
Source: Jbid., p. 41. 
According to the projections in the Secretary-General’s report, 
world demand for cobalt is expected to increase 6 to 8 percent per year 
through 1985. From this, the report concludes that world demand may 
reach 60,000 tons by 1985 with 30,000 tons recovered from nodules. 
Consequently, the price will start falling once cobalt recovered from 
nodules reaches the market. Cobalt produced from domestic mining 
operations, recovering a total of 7 million tons of nodules per year, 
would assure a domestic source for all the U.S. needs to the year 2000. 
Lone-Trerm Economic Prospects or NoputE MINING 
Sustained long-term development of the nodule industry will de- 
pend on its position relative to other sources of metal supply such as 
recycling and land mining. Technological developments, possible insti- 
tutional constraints, and market conditions all affect the relative com- 
Reeve position of metals supply. Industry sources indicate that the 
rst generation of nodule mining will likely be very profitable. Once 
the industry expands into a second generation of investment and tech- 
nology, possible declines in revenues may not be offset by reductions 
in cost. Once a metal becomes abundant, its price will fall to the level 
of its most important substitute. 
If half of the world demand is supplied from nodule mining by 
1985, cobalt is likely to be one of the first price casualties. Its price 
would eventually fall to the price level of nickel. Manganese metal 
is also vulnerable. One nodule operation of one million tons per year 
could supply nearly twice the projected world demand for manganese 
in metal form by 1980. If this amount of pure manganese could be 
marketed economically, it would likely cause the substitution of 
manganese metal for ferromanganese as the price of the metal fell. 
Molybdenum may also be supplied from nodules in great abundance 
relative to demand. Possibly declining prices of cobalt, manganese, 
and molybdenum are not expected to affect severely the profitability 
of the nodule mining industry. Profits will be based mainly on nickel 
and copper. Nickel and copper from nodules would least affect their 
world markets and would remain the long-term profit basis of the 
nodule mining industry. 
Although not precisely known, the extent of the world-wide ferro- 
manganese nodule reserves bears mention. Reserves are currently 
