THE NAVY OCEAN SCIENCE PROGRAM 49 



concepts depend on these noises to detect and track enemy 

 vehicles, it is important to understand their mode of generation 

 and how it is influenced by the environment. 



ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION 



The long-range goal of most of the Navy Ocean Science Pro- 

 gram is to develop the ability to predict the oceanic environment 

 for piuposes of naval operations. Such ability may take many 

 forms. It may be the day-by-day prediction of acoustic paths 

 in the sea for the detection of submarines, the forecast of surf 

 conditions on some remote beach for amphibious assault land- 

 ings, or the prediction of the ocean-floor properties for acoustic 

 or structural purposes. 



As a result of research under this program in the past, the 

 Navy now has a capability to predict surface-wave spectra. 

 There are still a number of investigations in surface waves 

 to provide the basic understanding necessary for reflnement 

 of the present techniques; but further major improvements 

 in wave forecasting will require extensive networks for the 

 observation of the surface-wind fleld over the oceans. Never- 

 theless, the Navy operates a successful ship-routing program 

 based on its present ability to predict ocean-surface conditions. 



One of the major prediction systems with which the Navy is 

 concerned is the prediction of time-variable environmental 

 conditions which affect ASW operations. Investigations which 

 bear on this capability include those in the transfer of heat 

 and energy between the ocean and the atmosphere, internal 

 waves and turbulence, and oceanic circulation, including the 

 location of ocean currents. The Navy presently has substantial 

 ASW environmental-prediction systems in operation, but these 

 are based primarily on climatic data and empirical relationships, 

 and much more understanding of the mechanisms involved is 

 required. 



Another type of prediction, which depends on an understanding 

 of the processes involved in shaping the sea floor, is that of 

 estimating what the bottom conditions will be in areas which 



