CHAPTER 4. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS 



This part of the report emphasizes the complex interaction among 

 the biophysical and socioeconomic environments within the estuarine 

 zone. The existing socioeconomic environment is the subject of the 

 preceding chapter; this chapter deals with trends associated with the 

 social and economic environment. 



The availability of certain resources in or near estuaries has strongly 

 influenced patterns of population growth and economic activity. Once 

 initiated, these changing; economic and .demographic patterns alter 

 the nature of the estuaries themselves. For example, the presence of 

 plentiful timber resources was a factor in the development of many 

 coastal towns and cities. Long after the depletion of the timber resource, 

 the deep deposits of sediments carried down from the scarred land to 

 the estuary bottom altered the biophysical system. Similarly, new sets 

 of economic activity such as transportation, manufacturing, and com- 

 merce replaced the initial extractive lumbering activity and in turn 

 affected the biophysical environment. 



Other trends, stemming from pressures wholly or partially external 

 to the estuarine environment, may also have profound influence. 

 For instance, the changing economic demands of a dynamic society 

 affect the location and composition of economic activity and popu- 

 lations in the estuarine zone. Thus, changes in labor markets, location 

 of raw materials, and prices determined to a large degree the shift 

 of textile manufacturing from the New England coast to the South. 



Barring catastrophes or other unforeseen developments, certain 

 trends are expected to continue in the country at large. Rapid popula- 

 tion growth and continued development of urban-suburban areas are 

 notable among the demographic projections, while the economy is 

 expected to show continued diversification, technological change, and 

 expansion. 



To assess the impact of these trends on the estuarine zone, the rea- 

 sons for the distribution of future population and economic growth 

 must be understood ; and an understanding of past and present trends 

 indicates in a general way what may be expected. 



The discussions in this chapter provide a basis for projecting the 

 changes that may be brought about by man's continuing activities in 

 the estuarine zone. 



This chapter was summarized from the report "Social and Eco- 

 nomic Trends associated with the Nation's Estuarine Region," pre- 

 pared by Harold F. Wise & Assoc, under contract with FWPCA as 

 part of the National Estuarine Pollution Study. The report is now 

 being prepared for publication. 



(187) 



