193 



Figure IV.4.4 shows a steadily rising trend and projection of U.S. 

 personal income. Total personal income is expected to rise at a 5.1 per- 

 cent annual rate of growth from 1970 to 2020. In terms of constant 

 1958 dollars, this represents an increase from about $615 billion to 

 nearly $5 trillion in 2020. Similarly, per- worker earnings will increase 

 substantially, rising from $6,000 in 1920 to $23,000 by 2020 as figure 

 IV.4.5 on page 194 shows. 



Within the economy, considerable variation in the rates of growth 

 of various sectors is expected. "Goods-producing" industries such as 

 agriculture, mining, and manufacturing will decrease in relative im- 

 portance, while thoso which are "service-producing" (e.g., contract 

 construction, trade and finance, and government) will increase. This 

 changing pattern of employment is exhibited in figure IV.4.6 on page 

 195. This figure gives a deta'iled accoimt of percentages of national 

 employment by broad industrial category. 



The fact that employment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries is 

 expected to show a steady decline from 12.5 percent of total national 

 employment in 1950 to 1.2 percent in 2020 is worthy of special atten- 

 tion, for combining all three of these categories masks the changes 

 that are actually taking place. A Bureau of Labor Statistics study 

 which treats each of the three categories separately for the years 

 1960-1975 anticipates : 



(1) 1,978,000 fewer agricultural workers in 1975 than in 1960 

 (a percentage drop from 8.6 percent to 4.2 percent) ; 



(2) an increase in forestry employment from 48,000 to 70,000; 



(3) growth in fisheries employment from 45,000 to 60,000. 

 Both forestry and fisheries maintain constant shares of national 



employment of .7 percent and .6 percent respectively. 



Employment in the service-producing sector should exhibit the 

 greatest proportional increase in the foreseeable future. The services 

 group will surpass both manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade in 

 percent of national employment by 1980. 



IMPLICATIONS OF THE NATIONAL PICTURE 



If normal circumstances prevail, the Nation's population and gen- 

 eral high standard of living will continue to increase in the coming 

 decades. A moderate estimate projects a doubling of the national 

 population by the turn of the century, with a significant proportion of 

 that growth occurring in urban areas. 



The population will be made up of a large proportion of youth and 

 young persons of working ages, with only a moderate increase in the 

 elderly through the end of the century. Personal income will rise 

 dramatically. Estimates of leisure time vary considerably, but all 

 authorities agree that the w^orkweek will shorten, from a conservative 

 estimate of 35 hours a w^eek to as little as 20 hours per week. The 

 National Planning Association has projected that in 1990, 10 percent, 

 and in 2000, 20 percent of the men between the ages of 25 and 54 will 

 be granted a 1-year leave every 7 years. Urban and particularly subur- 

 ban growth will expand greatly both to accommodate the growing 

 population and to provide amenities that it increasingly demands: 

 single-family dwellings, recreational areas, transportation facilities, 

 industrial developments, and so on. These demands will place rapidly 



