222 



ever, the current world merchant fleet will no doubt continue to operate 

 for at least another 20 years, which means that channels would have 

 to be maintained at least until this generation of ships has been 

 phased out. 



It has also been sujs^gested that a decrease in the number of ports 

 might prove more economical in the handling of the super fleet be- 

 cause of its enormous cargo capacity. Improved off-loading technology 

 and larger warehouses will be necessary to handle the increased ton- 

 nage, and it would be inefficient to develop a whole network of these 

 facilities, some of which might lie idle part of the time. Furthermore, 

 many smaller ports probably could not generate demand to warrant 

 development of super ship capabilities. 



The expansion of land transportation can be expected to parallel 

 port development in the future as it has in the past. Pipeline construc- 

 tion will develop concurrently with oil production — probably at a 

 rapid rate since the demand for natural gas and petroleum prpducts is 

 expected to triple over the next 30 years. The future of rail transport is 

 difficult to assess, no so much because of demand factors but because 

 the roads (particularly in the east) are undergoing a period of ad- 

 ministrative restructuring and a consolidation of service. 



The Houston-Galveston Bay complex demonstrates how a good har- 

 bor can encourage the growth and development of an area and begin 

 a demand spiral that leads to more intensive utilization of the harbor 

 and the development of other transport facilities. The Port of Houston 

 is now the third largest U.S. seaport in terms of total tonnage moved. 

 In 1963, approximately one-third of Houston's economy was linked to 

 the ship channel, the port and the resultant industry. Total investment 

 flowing from the port facilities and related industries exceeded $2.5 

 billion that year. The dredging of the Houston ship channel and the 

 development of cargo facilities has thus been of major consequence in 

 the development of this area. 



Table IV.4.5 shows the significance of transportation and its con- 

 comitant, wholesale trade, for the Houston-Galveston Bay area for 

 the years 1956 and 1967. The Port of Houston is served by six trunk- 

 line railroads, 38 motor freight carriers, 8 barge lines, 11 export pack- 

 ers, 35 freight forwarders, 19 stevedoring companies, and a large num- 

 ber of marine outfitters and ship chandlers. More than 100 steamship 

 lines offer service to all free- world ports. Future demand for all types 

 of transportation is expected to increase as the population grows and 

 industry expands. 



The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission 

 has done an excellent case study of the transportation pressures being 

 exercised in its estuarine area. San Francisco was founded as a port 

 city, and shipping is still of primary importance to the entire economy 

 of the bay area. In addition tx) the economic impact of the shipping in- 

 dustry itself, there are many other businesses and industries that have 

 been drawn to the region because of the availability of water trans- 



