228 



Measures of demand 



Both these studies for the first time demonstrated the basic causal 

 factors in outdoor recreation demand. In effect, they found that ade- 

 quate planning for outdoor recreation required larger concerns than 

 the biophysical environment; that the economic environment — 

 expressing the preference of society for goods and services — and the 

 institutional environment — decisions about the focus and character- 

 istics of agencies charged with the protection of resources and the 

 provision of outdoor recreation facilities — were equally important. 



The principal causal factors noted and documented by the Outdoor 

 Recreation Resources Review Commission reports were : 



( 1 ) Growth in total population ; 



(2) Growth in leisure time ; 



(3) Increased mobility of the total population, including 

 transportation ; 



(4) Changing population characteristics of the total 

 population; and 



(5) Concentration of population in urban or metropolitan 

 centers. 



It was concluded that, as the levels of the:se factors rose, the growth 

 of outdoor recreation demand for specific activities or opportunities 

 would accelerate faster than the net increase in total population. Sec- 

 tions 1 and 2 showed that these principal factors in the growth of out- 

 door recreation demand Avill exhibit sustained growth both nationally 

 and within the estuarine zone. Therefore, although no specific quan- 

 tification is presently available to project actual recreational demands 

 on and uses of the Nation's estuarine resources, they will certainly 

 increase at substantial rates in the future. It is uncertain whether 

 the supply of recreation resources will in fact be sufficient to meet this 

 large, if unquantified, demand. Continued degradation and restriction 

 of recreation resources, particularly those in the estuarine zone, may 

 well mean that some of the potential demand will be canceled by 

 overcrowded, unattractive areas already much in evidence. 



Although specific estuarine projections are not available, it has been 

 generally concluded by experts in the field that one indicator — attend- 

 ance in public parks — has risen by about 10 percent annually for many 

 years. This is a rate more than five times the rate of the "population 

 explosion" noted in section 1. There are indications that this com- 

 parative rate of growth for the outdoor recreation experience in public 

 park areas must level off, but the immediate future would seem to 

 maintain the trend toward more overcrowding and use, and the modify- 

 ing pressures these entail, as figure IV.4.15 indicates. 



Recreation demands are expressions of desire for certain activities 

 and thus are difficult to translate into requirements for particular 

 quantities of bay shoreline, acres of marsh, and so on. Thus the mag- 

 nitude of future demands and the consequent requirements for 

 associated estuarine resources are extremely difficult to pinpoint. 



Perhaps the most common indicator of recreation growth is ex- 

 pressed by "user days" of some particular activity. An example of this 

 is provided by the national trends and projections developed by the 

 Bureau of Outdoor Recreation. Figure IV.4.16 indicates the projec- 

 tions for five outdoor recreation activities that occur in the estuarine 



