NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PROGRAM—1965 
and lead to the development of new resources. 
For example, a decision to investigate the oceanic 
circulation directly through current measure- 
ments rather than indirectly through density 
determinations would have profound consequen- 
ces in terms of productivity for a given budget. A 
reinvestment of some fraction of research funds 
for training and education of oceanographers 
expands the future capability. Some of the options 
which would become available to oceanography 
through future budgets are thus appropriate to 
consider in a long-range plan. Conversely, some of 
the presently planned opportunities which would 
be lost in the event of restricted growth in sup- 
port can also be examined. Exploration of alter- 
natives and their potential value can minimize un- 
dertaking or perpetuating those with less promise 
and undesirably high deferred costs. 
A long-range plan can also take explicit account 
of uncertainty. Uncertainty in planning is of two 
kinds. The first is uncertainty which can be elim- 
inated by one’s own efforts. For example, in the 
question of current meter versus density investiga- 
tions of the oceanic circulation there seems to be 
considerable uncertainty about the reliability of 
the buoyed meters. Also, not enough is known 
about the effects of other physical processes on 
variations in the current velocity to determine 
what kind of a network of observing points and 
intervals would be required to filter out unwanted 
variations and reveal those due to the process un- 
der study. What is known suggests that the veloc- 
ity network would have to be much tighter than a 
density determination network yielding the same 
amount of information. Yet the density technique, 
although dealing with a less “noisy” spectrum 
than the velocity measurement technique, has the 
drawback that is difficult to establish absolute 
rather than merely relative current motion. The 
limitations in the usefulness of the present tech- 
nique on the one hand and uncertainties about the 
technical and economic feasibility of the proposed 
technique on the other suggest that a choice be- 
tween the two be postponed pending the results 
of an effort to remove this uncertainty. It is the 
function of a long-range plan to call attention to 
the desirability of such efforts. 
The second kind of uncertainty is inherent not 
so much in the state-of-the-art as in the nature of 
the future. The outcome of the effort to establish 
the feasibility of direct current measurements by 
fixed buoys throughout the ocean cannot be pre- 
dicted. Yet some of the consequence, if the effort 
439 
is successful, can be foreseen. Agreements must 
be reached with regard to legal responsibilities and 
rights of the sponsoring nation; frequency alloca- 
tions must be made so that radio beacons and 
lights do not interfere with operations of ships at 
sea, etc. Dealing with this kind of uncertainty re- 
quires maintaining programs which will enable un- 
certain or even unexpected developments to be ex- 
ploited if they materialize. Similarly, if the buoyed 
meter technique remains either technically or 
logistically infeasible, such other developments as 
constant density floats should be supported as in- 
surance against the failure of alternatives. In- 
surance 1s perhaps the key word in programs to be 
designed in the face of this type of uncertainty, 
insurance against both success and failure. 
The goals, capabilities, and programs developed 
in this plan can advance the cause of other federal 
committees and study groups concerned with re- 
lated problems. The Council’s Water Research 
Committee, for example, is one; its Interdepart- 
mental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences is an- 
other. The plan attempts to point out where this is 
the case and also acknowledges where the converse 
is true. Similarly, international organizations such 
as the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commis- 
sion and the International Hydrographic Bureau 
provide a framework for mutually valuable coor- 
dinated activity. 
In this regard it must be realized that we are not 
the only nation engaged in oceanography, al- 
though we may be carrying out as much as a quar- 
ter of the total world program. This plan should 
therefore provide comparisons with the programs 
of others as a basis for estimating relative rates 
of progress and obtaining insights into national 
objectives in oceanography elsewhere. 
Revisions in this plan must be contemplated as 
time and effort reveal the answers to matters 
which are now assumptions or opinions. There- 
fore, those with executive authority should regard 
it as a guide, not a blueprint, for action. They 
should anticipate that their decisions as well as 
unforeseen happenings will of necessity modify 
the future anticipated here, and that the new 
knowledge which results will provide the basis for 
a new plan to exploit the new opportunities to be 
revealed by the passage of time. 
Finally, this plan calls attention to its own inad- 
equacies and proposes measures for removing 
present organizational obstacles to better planning 
in the future. 
