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NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PROGRAM—1965 
Chapter IV 
CAPABILITIES AND SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT OCEANOGRAPHIC GOALS 
The size and scope of the overall program is 
based on an estimated growth in funding which 
averages about 10 percent per year, but which 
tapers from about 20 percent, from FY 1963 to 
FY 1964, to only about 7 percent in FY 1972. Ex- 
penditures corresponding to this expansion thus 
would increase from $123 million in FY 1963 to 
about $350 million in FY 1972, with a total over 
the decade of $2.3 billion. It should be emphasized, 
incidentally, that this plan does not represent 
growth over and above that which would be pro- 
jected by the individual agencies in its absence. 
Rather, it is a simple statement of superposed 
needs, goals, and programs for their achievement, 
modulated by the act of agencies planning 
together. 
This rate of growth, incidentally, is slightly 
greater than that estimated for expansion in feder- 
al support over the next decade of all scientific 
fields and disciplines. The annual expenditures 
for FY 1963 of about $12.4 billion are projected 
to grow to about $28 billion in FY 1972, by a fac- 
tor of about 2.2. Expenditures in oceanography 
are estimated to grow by a factor of 2.5. 
Whatever the assumed growth rate, it is essen- 
tial to evaluate the compatibility between pro- 
jected funds, facilities, and manpower. For plan- 
ning purposes, it has been assumed that manpower 
in oceanographic research will increase at a rate of 
9 percent per year, from a present work force of 
2700 scientists to over 6000 in 1972. This figure 
is to be compared with an annual increase across 
the board in all disciplines (from education, train- 
ing, field switching, etc.) that will average about 
7 percent annually, for the decade. Thus, the plan 
anticipates a growth rate of participants in this 
field somewhat faster than the average for all 
fields; this is considered reasonable in light of the 
small base from which growth extends —oceanog- 
raphy now employs only 0.6 percent of all scien- 
tists and engineers engaged in research and devel- 
opment. The main problem in satisfying manpower 
requirements will arise out of the fact that the field 
should grow fastest during the first part of the next 
decade, whereas the production from universities 
will be greatest toward the end of the decade. 
Some temporary imbalances are bound to arise, 
23 
perhaps to be met with the transition to greater 
emphasis on automation. 
To take account both of inflation and the more 
sophisticated and expensive instrumentation and 
operations expected of the future, an annual in- 
crease of about 15 percent in the direct dollar 
cost of supporting each scientist has been assumed. 
(Since 1940, the cost per technical man year in all 
sciences has increased at an annual rate of about 
11 percent.) Thus, research, instrumentation, and 
ship operations cost about $65 million in 1963. 
The comparable figure for 1972 is about $230 
million. The number of ships in the oceanographic 
fleet is arbitrarily planned to increase in the same 
proportion as the number of scientists; that is, by 
a factor somewhat in excess of two. But whether in 
fact the capability is augmented solely by ships, 
or by such devices as unmanned buoys remains to 
be determined by research itself. The amount to 
be invested in facilities is similarly related to the 
augmentation required in the current plant to 
accommodate the increased work force and their 
activities and assumes greater increase in size of 
individual laboratories than in their numbers. 
It is not possible to justify the allocation of this 
overall program among the goals and agencies by 
a similarly quantitative argument. The situation is 
more complex, depending as it must on where 
each agency starts as well as where it wishes to go, 
and most particularly on the nature of the pro- 
grams which it is conducting. 
To see why judgment must supplement analy- 
sis in determining the allocation of effort among 
agencies and programs, it should be kept in mind 
that many of the programs in oceanography are 
in essence largely determined by the questions 
posed for them to answer. 
Such programs, and there are many, cannot be 
confidently assigned to the support of any particu- 
lar goal nor even prorated among them. For this 
reason much of the accounting in this chapter, and 
through the entire report, has been necessarily 
vague. Furthermore, in the interests of brevity as 
well as clarity, a discussion of details has generally 
been omitted. What remains, though approximate, 
is believed sufficiently accurate to show major fea- 
tures, general relationships, and matters of balance 
