NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PROGRAM—1965 715 
As we can see from the papers these days, we seem to be on the verge of some 
sort of crab war in the Bering sea with the Russians. More such controversies 
are inevitable as we increase our fisheries efforts, and it is certain that we 
will not be able to achieve a rational exploitation of the valuable fisheries 
stocks of the world ocean as long as the efforts of any one nation cannot be re- 
stricted. The efforts of those wke agree to conserve Antarctic whales are futile 
as long as other fishing nations sneak into the waters and capture whales of all 
species and sizes. The United States cannot piously point the finger at another 
nation, especially in the matter of whales, for the memorial to the great ods of 
sperm whales, now forever gone from the seas, is New Bedford, Massachusetts. At 
least we have made some modest beginnings toward the sort of international accord 
that must be achieved in our cooperative international oceanographic endeavours. 
The most striking of these is now under way, the Internaional Indian Ocean 
Expedition. Under the auspices of the UN, this expedition which involves the 
ships and scientists of many nations, has as one of its aims the increase of 
knowledge about the resources of the Indian Ocean, primarily for the benefit of 
the countries bordering on the Indian Ocean. Some of these, like India, do not 
have the resources in research ships and talent to undertake such studies with- 
out this assistance. 
It is difficult to predict which essential step toward greater reliance on 
the seas will come first -- complete international <¢cord or scientific under- 
standing at such a level of sophistication that we can reasonably predict fisheries 
stocks from year to year. One suspects the latter will come first. Yet it is a 
difficult task, to understand the combined effects of man and nature in the sea. 
One of the greatest fisheries investigations in the history of man was that under- 
taken along the California and Oregon coast since about 199 to find out what had 
happened to the sardines. As already mentioned, we are not sure how much of the 
change was brought about by nature and how much by man. 
But we suspect most of the change was due to nature. This is based partly 
on the analogy of such past events as the 15th century disappearance of th Baltie 
herring, the great tilefish catastrophe of 1882, but in particular on the cite. 
stance that while conditions seem to be improving for sardines and the fishing 
effort is minimal, the sardines are not coming back. Perhaps they will come back, 
but as yet we lack the information to predict if or when. We cannot even answer 
the question tnrat we may have this whole business the wrong way around, that actu- 
ally the great sardine catches of the 1930's were made during an unusual period 
and that the usual -- normal 2- or average state of affairs is indeed one of 
colder waters, stronger winds and fewer sardines. So far, at least, we have no 
indication of regularity in this process -- cycles of 7, 9 or 11 years or what- 
ever. What we do know is that the warming up of the ocean in 1957-60 is not a 
unique event -- something like it apparently occurred a hundrec years before. 
We are often asked about the warming of the ocean water, especially since 
this period seemed to coincide with more sharks. Perhaps it was simply that more 
people expose themselves to sharks these days. It is misleading to think of the 
ocean as warming up -- what actually happened was a shift in surface water, 
brought about by some change in the wind and pressure system over the entire 
Pacific basin. Decreased wind force reduces the upwelling of cold water near 
shore, and even results in somewhat higher sea level along the shore. If we try 
to understand the process as an actual warming up, we have to think of the amount 
of heat required -- something like four times the heat of the sun that actually 
reached the ocean in 1956-57. So evidently there was a shifting pattern in the 
ocean, and the sharks, out in the warmer waters away from shore all the time, 
