11 



breakthroughs that could bring aquatic biomass to fruition in early 

 years. We are certainly open to that. 



The present state of our knowledge about aquatic biomass is 

 simply reflected by the wide range of estimates of yield and cost. 

 There are tremendous uncertainties at the moment. 



Just to give you some benchmarks for uncultured forest wood 

 growth, the figure of less than a ton per acre per year, that is an 

 oven dry ton of biomass growth is common. Under accelerated 

 growing conditions we think we know how to increase that to the 

 range of 7 to 12 tons per acre per year. 



Corn producing 100 to 200 bushels per acre, just by comparison, 

 would be in the range of 2 to 5, or over tons per acre per year. 



Now, we have also examined the question of the theoretical 

 maximum production of organic growing, organic material per 

 acre, and the estimates there are all over the map. I have seen 

 estimates that range all the way from 10 to in excess of 35 dry tons 

 per acre per year. 



For land-based water systems, biomass water systems, I have 

 seen numbers that range up to several times that, as high as 150 or 

 180 dry tons per acre per year. 



We hear about work in New Mexico, and we hear about work in 

 South Africa, and work in Israel, and in other parts of the world 

 that have achieved, on some experimental basis, what appear to be 

 extraordinary high growth rates. Some of the theoretical estimates 

 that we have seen for marine biomass would indicate maximum 

 theoretical yields of 45 to 50, and in fresh water 60 to 70, 75, in 

 that range. These wide ranges of uncertainty also give rise to 

 tremendous ranges in costs. 



The cost of producing biomass feedstock is a major part of the 

 cost to the finished energy product. We see numbers that range 

 anywhere from $20 to $30 per dry ton, to several hundred dollars 

 per dry ton. 



Now, by the research and development efforts that the Depart- 

 ment of Energy is conducting, we would hope to be in a position in 

 the early eighties, in 1982, 1983, to better judge the relative costs, 

 and the various factors, quantitatively the various factors that are 

 associated with producing marine and terrestrial biomass than we 

 are now, and to narrow that uncertainty. 



We believe that this is the essence of why it is important for us 

 to do research both on land and in the ocean. Because we believe, 

 first of all, that the potential for biomass is very large, and that 

 the risks associated with ever achieving possible results are man- 

 ageable, they are reasonable research risks, but the uncertainties 

 likewise are very, very large at this time. So our research program 

 is designed to narrow these uncertainties, and we are very early 

 into the research, as far as being able to pin down priorities, and 

 say yes, with certainty we believe that one particular kind of 

 biomass can produce a lot more than another particular kind of 

 biomass, and that the cost would be thus and so. 



Our aquatic biomass program also fits into the spectrum of 

 doe's ocean energy program. Dr. Miller discussed the ocean ther- 

 mal program with the committee not long ago. There are natural 

 potential tie-ins between biomass production in the ocean and the 

 ocean thermal program. 



69-848 0-81 



