of a well-conceived graduated series of observational and computer simu- 

 lation experiments. This effort culminates towards the end of this decade 

 in an experiment with strong international participation. We believe the 

 practical and scientific benefits in prospect justify strong support for this 

 program through its remaining phases. 



While acknowledging this scientific and organizational achievement, 

 and supporting the determination to carry it through to completion, 

 NACOA recommends that greater attention now be paid to the problems 

 created by weather and environmental phenomena at the other extreme, 

 those that are of small or medium scale, geographically limited, short-lived, 

 and exceptional in the sense of being at the same time both hazardous 

 and infrequent in any one spot. We are referring to flash floods, tor- 

 nadoes, severe hail storms, pollution "hot spots," sudden crop-damaging 

 freezes, and short-temi fluctuations in phenomena of great importance to 

 operations, such as airport ceilings and visibility, and anomalous wave 

 heights at harbor entrances, near shore, and at sea. 



These phenomena share a number of properties that require a special 

 approach in providing appropriate services. Reporting the occurrence of 

 specific events in time for appropriate action becomes more important 

 than scientifically exact descriptions of the phenomena themselves. In 

 urging greater emphasis on the development of "user-oriented" forecast 

 systems designed for hazardous situations, NACOA also notes that closer 

 attention to user needs could pay off" in increasing the usefulness of the 

 daily, more or less routine, weather prediction services. 



Natural Disaster Warning 



During the fall of 1972, NACOA carried out an evaluation of the 

 performance of the national weather and flood forecasting-warning-dis- 

 semination system during Hurricane Agnes. There were $3.5 billions in 

 property destruction- — a. new record — and 118 deaths. Hurricane Agnes 

 put the capabilities and skills of the Nation's weather and flood warning 

 system to a severe test. 



As is customary after disasters of such magnitude. Dr. R. M. White, 

 Administrator of NOAA, assembled an in-house Survey Team to 

 gather detailed firsthand information from the weather service units involv- 

 ed, and from the communities afTected by the flood events of Agnes, to assess 

 the efTectiveness of NOAA's storm and flood warning services and to profit 

 from the experience. Dr. White asked NACOA to make an independent 

 evaluation of NOAA's performance because of the magnitude of the 

 calamity. What the NACOA panel asked of itself was whether these 

 losses could have been avoided or diminished by more efficient warning 

 service performance. 



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