360 



Columbia University and the U.S. Geological Survey. A report is 

 due within the next couple of months. 



In 1980 the Department began planning for fiscal year 1982 re- 

 gional study plan for the Atlantic. As with the regional technical 

 working groups in other areas, the North Atlantic regional techni- 

 cal work group was an active participant in recommending the spe- 

 cial studies. 



Deep water studies were considered and the general consensus 

 was that environmental information summarized should be pre- 

 pared before any field program was initiated. 



The Department contracted for this summary in 1982, and the 

 draft final report was just received from Marine Geoscience Appli- 

 cations, Inc. It will be used in designing a field program that is 

 scheduled to begin in this fiscal year. 



The Scientific Advisory Committee has also examined this issue 

 of deep water studies, and issued a report in 1982 advising the De- 

 partment to conduct broad surveys first and then focus on areas of 

 specific interest. 



That advice was followed in planning the 1983 studies program. 

 There are some plans now being made for a deep water field effort. 

 They will be made public shortly. Field studies will be conducted 

 for at least two years in deep waters of the North Atlantic. The De- 

 partment remains convinced, however, as has been noted in the 

 recent NEPA documents, that there are sufficient controls on drill- 

 ing operations and that deep water environments will suffer no 

 more risk of damage than those in the shallower areas. 



The subcommittee also expressed interest on the resource esti- 

 mates for Georges Bank. The first resource estimates for the pro- 

 posed sale 52 area were developed in 1980 for use in the EIS proc- 

 ess. The resource estimates were developed by using conditional as- 

 sumptions that commercial hydrocarbon accumulation existed in 

 the area. At that time the conditional resource estimates ranged 

 from 17 million to 6.35 millions of oil, and from 196 billion cubic 

 feet to 13.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. The conditional mean esti- 

 mates, assuming commercial discoveries, were 1.73 billion barrels 

 of oil and 5.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. 



What this means is that if the commercial discovery were made, 

 these were the quantities of hydrocarbons that would be expected. 



It was estimated there was a .6 probability that no commercial 

 accumulation was present. 



These original resource estimates were based on preliminary 

 mapping of a regional seismic data grid on rather wide spacing, ap- 

 proximately 7.5 by 12 miles. 



The only geologic data available at that time was from the two 

 stratigraphic test wells drilled in 1976 and 1977. These resource es- 

 timates reflected a lot of the general optimism that was prevalent 

 at the time of the first OCS sales, where over $817 million was paid 

 to the Department in bonuses for the 63 tracts that were leased. 



In sale 42, bids by the operators were primarily based on deep 

 structures, even though the data available from the stratigraphic 

 test wells indicated a lack of potential reservoirs. Enthusiasm on 

 the part of the industry reflected in this bidding increased the De- 

 partment's optimism and was part of the reason for the higher ini- 

 tial estimates for OCS sale 52. 



