393 



How the resource estimates for Georges Bank oil and gas were compiled and in- 

 corporated in the policymaking process . 



Resource estimates are normally incorporated in the decisionmaking process at 



two points, the draft environmental impact statement (EIS) and the Secretarial 



Issue Document (SID). This allows the presale analysis to proceed incorporating 



the most current information available. Provisions are available to Incorporate 



at any time significant changes to these estimates further allowing decisionmakers 



access to the most current information. 



The first resource estimates for the proposed Sale No. 52 area were developed In 



October 1980 for use in preparing tMfe EIS analysis addressing the costs and 



benefits associated with the proposed sale and alternatives to the proposal. These 



resource estimates were conditional upon a commercial accumulation existing In the 



proposed area. The conditional resource estimates ranged from 17 million to 6.35 



billion barrels of oil and from 196 billion cubic feet to 13.5 trillion cubic 



feet of gas. The conditional mean estimates were 1.73 billion barrels of oil and 



5.25 trillion cubic feet of gas. This means that if a commercial discovery was 



made In the area proposed for leasing we would, on average, expect to find 1.73 



billion barrels of oil and 5.25 trillion cubic feet of gas. It was estimated 



that there was a .6 probability that no commercial accumulation was present. 



These resource estimates were based on preliminary mapping of a regional seismic 



data grid (approximately 7.5 x 12 miles). The only geologic data available In 



the vicinity of the proposed sale was from two COST wells drilled In 1976 and 



1977. These resource estimates reflect the general optimism prevailing at the 



time, as evidenced by Sale No. 42 where the Department leased 63 tracts for 



$817 million. 



In this sale, industry offered high dollar bids on deep structures where data 



available from the COST wells indicated a lack of potential reservoirs 



28-914 0—84 26 



