What are the chances of a summer drought, or a cold wet spring 
occurring in two major food-producing areas of the globe at the same 
time? How could knowing the odds for regional or seasonal climate 
variations assist in agricultural planning or in the storage or substitution 
of one kind of food for another? Climatology has a large potential contri- 
bution to such matters that remains untapped. It can at least provide 
statistics which would allow us to estimate the probabilities of good and 
bad years. 
The supply of fresh water is also climate-dependent. When water is in 
short supply, areas which do not normally irrigate for agriculture are forced 
to do so, thus further reducing the amount available for other human and 
industrial use. Energy demand is likewise dependent on climate. A severe 
winter in any of the northern portions of the U.S. can impose regionally 
higher-than-normal demand for heating fuels and electricity. 
Detailed records of temperature, rainfall, and crop statistics extend 
back for decades. This is a basis for estimating what we face in the near 
future when reflected against the background of the larger-cycle changes 
in climate. NACOA feels we must take better advantage of this infor- 
mation than we now do and supply statistical climatic prediction for next 
year’s agricultural and energy planning. Agriculture, power, and water- 
resource dependent industry have long used current statistics on tempera- 
ture and rainfall to estimate seasonal or yearly yield and demand, and to 
assist in the better management of reserves and the manipulation of alter- 
natives. What is not customary, as far as we have been able to determine, 
is to estimate the risks on a large scale, over the next several seasons, and 
over large areas of the earth, and then to prepare contingency plans for 
what might occur. 
Joseph had, in the Pharaoh, both the source of the vision and the power 
to do something about it. The Pharaoh had in Joseph an agent who could 
plan in advance how to mitigate a future disaster. The message and the 
power are less clear today, and it is more difficult to agree on a course of 
action. But: 
(1) The need for estimating the odds of adverse climatic effects on 
crops exists because we are no longer isolated from food disasters 
elsewhere on the globe and must plan our own reserves accordingly. 
(2) The means for estimating such odds exists because we have infor- 
mation on what has happened to climate and crops over the past 
several decades. 
(3) Buying time allows for sober contingency planning. 
NACOA, therefore, recommends that NOAA and the Department of 
Agriculture, who already jointly prepare weekly and seasonal weather and 
crop bulletins and advisories, work out the means by which crop estimates 
for the next several years may be extended to a large-scale basis. NACOA 
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