heavily on the linkage between the oceans and the atmosphere. It is not 
exclusively an atmospheric problem and atmospheric scientists find it 
somewhat alien to their main interests. The broader scientific community, 
which might logically be identified with the second GARP objective, has 
never recognized and accepted this mandate in any way comparable to 
the way in which meteorologists have responded to the first objective. 
It seems to have fallen through the cracks. Not being a purely atmospheric 
problem, it did not generate a response from the atmospheric sciences; not 
being a purely oceanographic problem, no explicit strategy came from 
the oceanographic community. 
The reason the ocean-atmospheric link is so important for climate merits 
at least a brief explanation. Most of the solar energy reaching the earth’s 
surface falls on the sea. This energy is initially absorbed in the upper 
layers of the oceans; there it provides a source for immediate local transport 
of heat and water vapor from the oceans to the atmosphere (and is 
responsible for the extensive convective activity in the tropics that plays 
such a major role in weather). It serves as a vast reservoir of heat which 
ultimately drives the circulation of the deeper layers of the ocean and of 
the atmosphere. Because the oceans are so vast, and their heat capacity 
so large compared to land, oceanic changes can be virtually ignored in 
studying day-to-day changes in weather. They play a major role, however, 
in the longer term variations in weather regimes. Changes in the near- 
surface layer of the ocean are significant in determining year-to-year 
changes. The deeper into the ocean we go, the slower the changes in 
thermal pattern and circulation, so that when we look at climatic changes 
occurring over periods measured in centuries and even longer, it 1s necessary 
to take the entire ocean into account. 
The process is further complicated by the extent to which the polar 
seas are covered with ice, which in turn affects the atmospheric thermal 
balance in polar regions. The result is that changes in “climate,” that is, 
in the general pattern of wind, temperature, and rainfall, are the result 
of a complex interaction involving the envelope of air, water, and ice 
which surrounds the solid earth. Of these, only the air has been studied 
to any great extent. Comparatively little investigative work has been done 
on the dynamics of the ocean. 
Owing to fundamental indeterminacies in atmospheric behavior, it is 
unlikely that we will ever be able to predict “weather” more than about 
two weeks ahead; hence the time period specified in the first GARP goal. 
When it comes to predicting long-term changes in climate, the predictability 
of the oceans becomes the important factor. While a great deal of research 
has been conducted in recent years on atmospheric behavior over a wide 
range of time and space scales, very little has been done about the oceans — 
especially the deep oceans. Without this and other knowledge from the 
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