590 
of American aircraft carriers, the U.S. Navy would have to either 
divert carriers from other areas to the Indian Ocean or leave the 
Soviet Union unchallenged. 
Technological trends 
Modern technology is placing more and more destructive power 
at the disposal of smaller and smaller units—on land, at sea, and 
in the air. This trend has accelerated dramatically over the last decade. 
It has brought highly accurate mid course and terminal guidance for 
missiles and projectiles; increasing speeds as well as accuracies in 
reaching targets whether close or very far away; and equivalent ad- 
vances in surveillance and other sensing means. Progress in such areas, 
by both sides, seems likely to continue or even to accelerate further. 
The implications of this trend for military operations, tactics, doc- 
trines, and equipment may be revolutionary, at: sea as well as 
elsewhere. It may also have a major impact on national strategies. 
For example, small ships and submarines are far more deadly than 
they were only 10 years ago. Hiding and surprise are now, and will 
continue to be, more and more important. Large surface ships will 
be harder to hide from modern and future sensors, more vulnerable 
to attack from more sources, and more difficult and more costly 
to protect. Numbers are more important than before, and complex, 
vulnerable, and costly weapons systems may be less effective as well 
as less numerous in the future. 
Advances flowing from the space program are altering the use of 
submarines. Satellite surveillance and modern communications can ad- 
vise submarines as to the location of surface ships. Surface vessels, 
on the other hand, have no equivalently effective way to find or 
track submarines. Such modern technical trends favor the submarine 
over the surface ship. 
As noted earlier, the Soviets are well ahead of the United States 
in the number of submarines, surface ships, and anti-ship missiles. 
The United States is ahead only in the number of large aircraft car- 
riers, an area in which the Soviet Union is not competing. 
Critics maintain that major combatant may be a category of rapidly 
diminishing importance, particularly if the newer technologies mean 
more effective defenses against manned aircraft—as seems to be the 
Naval spokesmen, on the other hand, argue that the most effective 
new technologies to combat manned aircraft also require large plat- 
forms. Those that fit on smaller platforms are said to be less effective, 
although they are an improvement over those available 10 years ago. 
In the latest “‘Research Posture Statement,’’ an annual Pentagon 
publication, Dr. Malcolm R. Currie, Director of Defense Research 
and Engineering, states that although the United States continues 
to hold a technological lead over the Soviet Union in most areas 
critical to our national security, the Pentagon fears that the rapidly 
expanding Soviet military research program could result in overall 
Soviet dominance in military technology by the mid-1980’s.6* The 
Soviet research effort is said to be in transiton, away from the conven- 
tional incrementalism of the past toward innovation and bold new 
undertakings in speculative but high payoff areas. Having gained 
nuclear parity, the Soviet Union, according to Dr. Currie, is investing 
increasing resources in a search for revolutionary technologies which 
82 New York Times, Feb. 15, 1976. 
