619 
The U.S. merchant marine has fallen to 9th or 10th place in terms 
of total tonnage. It now carries only about 5.1 percent of all U-S. 
overseas trade. With respect to marine science and technology, the 
United States still leads, but several industrial countries, including 
the Soviet Union, are rapidly overtaking this U.S. lead after years 
of considerable expansion of the scientific manpower and physical 
facilities needed to conduct ocean science at sea. 
The once overwhelming naval superiority of the United States has 
vanished. The Chief of Naval Operations now maintains that, while 
the United States can still carry out its missions and tasks against 
the Soviet naval threat, it can do so only on the basis of a very 
slim margin of success. Other strategic analysis, including the former 
Chief of Naval Operations, Adm. Elmo Zumwalt, are not convinced 
that the U.S. Navy could still win a sea-control war against the Soviet 
Union. 
Thus, while U.S. ocean capabilities are still impressive, there is 
little doubt that the United States has declined, relative to the Soviet 
Union, as a maritime power. 
The dependence of the United States upon the oceans will continue 
and increase in the future. Foreign trade, once a matter of marginal 
importance, is now vital to this Nation’s well being. Of 27 of the 
most important raw materials for industrial production, one-third (or 
19) come from overseas. Almost 40 percent of the total U.S. oil 
consumption is imported; its value has tripled since 1972. Within 
5 years, oil imports will amount to 50 percent of U.S. consumption. 
Exports of agricultural and industrial products must balance these 
growing oil imports. The recent lowering of tariff barriers, and the 
rise of multinational corporations, will increase international economic 
interdependence. 
If present trends continue, the U.S. merchant marine will carry 
even less than the 5.1 percent of U.S. foreign trade which it handles 
now. This trend means more outflow of foreign exchange, loss of 
potential jobs in the United States, and possible national security 
problems, from overreliance on foreign merchant ships. 
The growing Soviet naval threat must be evaluated in the context 
of geography and principal alliances. Most of the principal allies of 
the United States are situated across the oceans. To project American 
power overseas and to supply American and allied forces abroad 
with necessary war material, the United States needs a powerful Navy. 
Many observers fear that the chance of a nuclear holocaust will in- 
crease unless the United States can control the seas, if armed conflict 
between the superpowers breaks out. 
The Soviet Union depends on the oceans far less than the United 
States, with the notable exception of marine fisheries. Its overseas 
trade is about one-quarter as large. It is self-sufficient in oil and 
most strategic raw materials. Its industries are not integrated with 
the industrial countries of the West. If necessary, it could keep its 
industries going without ever sending a ship outside its coastal waters. 
All of her principal allies, and two out of three of its potential major 
adversaries, are situated on the Eurasian land mass. The Soviet Union, 
in other words, is a typical landpower. 
In spite of its geographic position, limited dependence on the 
oceans, and a much smaller GNP, the Soviet Union has become 
a major maritime power in the past 25 years. 
