Ongoing National Projects 



The Federal programs in weather modification are coordinated under 

 the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Science (ICAS) of 

 the Federal Committee for Science and Technology. A number of the 

 research projects representing voluntary combinations of resources of sev- 

 eral of the interested Federal agencies are National Projects. They include 

 snowpack augmentation, surface-wind reduction in hurricanes, increase 

 of natural rainfall in areas where needed, reduction of damaging hailfall, 

 spreading heavy Great Lakes snowfall over a wider area, and improving 

 visibility in warm and cold fogs. Though agency funding for weather 

 modification has lately been increased — in the last 2 years from $16 mil- 

 lion (FY '71) to $20 million (FY '72 Estimate) to $25 million (FY '73 

 Budget) — the projects have characteristically been inadequately coordi- 

 nated, underfunded through fragmentation, often not backed up by basic 

 research, and undertaken with obsolete equipment. This is not a criticism 

 of any specific project, but of the lack of central planning and execution. 



SOME POTENTIAL BENEFITS 



Although too much reliance should not be placed on benefit-to-cost 

 analysis, attractive ratios are already being achieved in some areas of 

 weather modification. The Southern California Edison Project in the 

 upper San Joaquin River Basin in the Sierra Nevada range has been 

 operated continuously every winter since the 1950-51 season. Although 

 the exact figures are proprietary, the meteorologist in charge reports that 

 annual runoff has been increased 8 percent over the lifetime of the project.* 

 Bureau of Reclamation studies indicate something like a 10 to 1 ratio 

 of benefit-to-cost for orographic precipitation enhancement of this sort.** 

 However, these operational programs are limited in number and have re- 

 mained relatively constant through many years. Many programs having 

 large potential benefits at attractive operational costs are not operational 

 today due to limitations in the present technology. This translates to limi- 

 tations on the resources (laboratory facilities, scientific manpower, instru- 

 mented aircraft, computer time, etc.) necessary to improve the technology. 



Hail suppression has been operational in the USSR for many years with 

 reported benefit-to-cost ratios of as high as 17 to 1. Lightning-caused forest 

 fires produce losses in excess of $100 million annually and destroy valu- 

 able forests. An operational technique for lightning suppression is expected 

 to yield a benefit-to-cost ratio of at least 5 to 1. A semioperational pro- 

 gram in Alaska now beginning its fourth season reflected this ratio in the 

 1971 summer season. Cold fog dispersal over airport runways is now op- 



* Private communication from Robert D. Elliott, North American Weather Con- 

 sultants, Santa Barbara, Calif. 



** "Some Considerations of Benefit-to-Cost Relationships Regarding Use of Weather 

 Modification," by Loren W. Crow, April 7, 1972, Contract to NOAA, LWC #99. 



24 



