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Before the First World War, travel by all mechanical means averaged 
500 to 800 miles per person per year.* During the twenties, travel by 
Americans made rapid increases so that by 1930, the average travel 
per person was 3,000 miles per year. Presently, this value stands at 
5,000 per year, and by the year 2000 it may be as high as 9,000 miles 
per year per person.* With the continual increases in real per capita 
income, more persons will be able to own their own means of transpor- 
tation and the traveling in leisure hours will rise significantly. 
Many secondary factors affect the demand for recreation. Some of 
these are, however, extremely difficult to quantify. For instance, total 
participation in outdoor recreation generally rises as the educational 
level of the participants rises. The correlation here is not clear since the 
level of income also increases with the level of education. The demand 
for recreation may change, as the relative position of the individual 
and the group changes in the whole social situation. Mass congestion 
may create abnormal demands for open spaces and physical activity 
in the outdoors. These demands may be channeled into other directions 
through communications media, but it may not be enough to control 
the large increases forecasted in the demand. | 
How large an increase is very much debatable. Marion Clawson, in 
his article ‘‘The Crisis in Outdoor Recreation,” ° foresees a fivefold to 
fifteenfold increase, from 1960 to the end of the century. The US. 
Forest Service is planning in terms of a fourfold projection for the same 
period while the ORRRC looks for a threefold increase. The ORRRC 
projection comes from the 95-percent increase in population from 1960 
to the year 2000 and a 184-percent increase in the participation rate. 
Even the most conservative of those estimates is a disturbing realiza- 
tion for those who must create, develop, and maintain the parklands 
and recreational areas necessary to meet this demand. At the same 
time, consideration must be given to any decline in recreation facility 
use due to the increase in the number of people visiting the areas and 
to any downgrading in the quality of the environment from crowding 
or overuse. Education, mass media efforts, and community restructur- 
ing could bring about a marked reduction in the growth of the demand. 
It is impossible to imagine that the growth could change so drastically 
that the current facilities would suffice. Even in this case any restruc- 
turing in the type of demands would also necessitate a change in the 
recreational areas and parklands. Besides the causal factor influencing 
the demand, there are several significant features of the demand for 
recreation which must be noted. 
The demand for recreation is unequally distributed throughout 
the population. The very young and the very old desire less rec- 
reation than do those in their teens and middle years. The type of 
recreation demanded by teenagers and young adults is much more 
physically active than for those of middle age. Participation by in- 
come shows that as the family income increases so does the demand. 
Barlowe in his article “‘Land for Recreation” ? states that for families 
Whose income is under $3,000 there are 18.5 days of participation 
3 Barlowe, Rahleigh, “Land For Recreation,” Land Use Policies and Problems In The United States, 
University of Nebraska Press, 1963. 
4 Clawson and Knetsch, ‘‘Economics of Outdoor Recreation,” Resources For The Future, The Johns 
Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1966 
5 “Crisis In Outdoor Recreation,’ American Forest, March-April 1959. 
