FEAR FAMINE 



Facts inevitably point to a short supply and higher prices of coal next fall. 

 Consideration of the factors that govern the market and prices of coal pro- 

 duces the general opinion among fuel authorities that the only safe course, 

 in order to be sure of next winter's supply, is to buy coal now. 



OAL in the bins left over 

 from last winter's supply 

 has induced greenhouse 

 men, as well as other large 

 consumers, to put off con- 

 tracting for next season's 

 supply, in the hope that, 

 with the signing of peace 

 and the restoration of 

 business equilibrium, 

 prices might undergo a reduction. Such 

 waiiness was in accord with the general 

 anticipation that the change from war 

 to peace basis 'would bring down some- 

 what the prices that have been soaring 

 skyward in the last three and four 

 years. But the seven months which have 

 passed since the armistice was signed 

 have shown, each one more clearly than 

 its predecessor, that such hope was vain. 

 Prices show no tendency to go down- 

 ward, and the combination of increased 

 industrial activity and the shortage of 

 labor from greatly diminished immigra- 

 tion has produced a situation that indi- 

 cates the aggravation rather than the 

 amelioration of war-time conditions. 



Production Behind. 



Figures supplied by C. E. Lesher, 

 chief of the United States Geological 

 Survey, who is working with the fuel 

 administration, show that during the 

 first five months of this year only 178,- 

 000,000 tons of coal were mind. In the 

 same period last year, production was 



J. D. A. MORROW, 



Director of Fuel Distribution, 

 Says: 



' 'Within the next year we shall 

 lose 40,000 immigrants, who will 

 return to Europe. The mines gave 

 up 100,000 men to the army and 

 navy, and these men will never re- 

 turn to tlie mineSi. Meanwhile 

 there has been no immigration, 

 upon which the mining industry 

 depends for men. We face one of 

 the most serious shortages of la- 

 bor in the whole history of min- 

 ing. My advice to the public is to 

 buy coal while there is still an 

 opportunity." 



FIVE FUEL FACTORS 



Rail rates to tfo up 15%. 



Labor short 7,000,000 aaen. 



High prices held up by labor. 



Freight car shortage threat- 

 ened. 



Production 48,000,000 tons 

 behind. 



232,000,000 tons. The nation is already 

 short, the coal experts say, 48,000,000 

 tons. 



Dr. Harry A. Garfield, of the United 

 States fuel administration, estimates 

 that 530,000,000 tons are needed for 

 1919. Of this, 30,000,000 tons are sup- 

 plied by the accumulated stocks of last 

 year. There remain 500,000,000 tons to 

 be produced this year. Of that amount, 

 only 178,000,000 tons have been mined. 

 There are yet 322,000,000 tons to be pro- 

 duced. "That means," says Dr. Gar- 

 field, "an average production of 10,700,- 

 000 tons weekly. But our present aver- 

 age is only 8,200,000. At this rate it is 

 believed we will be down to a week-to- 

 week consumption by August or Sep- 

 tember. ' ' 



The labor outlook affords no reason 

 for belief that production figures can 

 be- bettered. Miners are recruited, more 

 than any other force of workers, from 

 immigration. The tide which formerly 

 swept to this country from southeastern 

 Europe furnished material in abundance. 

 The influx was continuous, and as fast 

 as the miners progressed and went into 

 other industries, other immigrants were 

 ready to fill their places. 



Not so now. The high tide of immi- 

 gration of over 1,000,000 a year between 

 1910 and 1915 shrank to 100,000 in 1918, 

 and the record for 1919 promises little 

 more. Compared to previous years, the 

 period 1915 to 1919 shows a loss of ap- 

 proximately 5,000,000 immigrants. Com- 

 pilation of figures indicates that this 

 year about 40,000 foreigners, who have 

 saved much money in the recent period 

 of high wages, will return to their home 

 countries. Let it be remembered that 

 Europe, too, has lost heavily in man 

 power. Those who were killed or died 

 of wounds in the war number nearly 

 8,000,000. As many again are disabled. 



In addition are heavy civilian losses. 

 The freedom of Poland, Czechoslovakia 

 and other similar nationalities opens op- 

 portunities at home for those who in 

 former years were accustomed to seek 

 them here. It is doubtful if immigra- 

 tion will reach the million mark again 

 for many years. 



The army and navy still holds about 

 1,000,000 men from the labor field. New 

 industries, such as shipbuilding, have 

 claimed 500,000 men. Colonel Wood, 

 of the War Department Employment 

 Bureau, estimates that ' ' American labor 

 is short its usual complement by nearly 

 7,000,000 men. ' ' In such a situation, in- 

 creased mine production cannot be 

 looked for. 



Freight Rates May Go Up. 



Increase in railroad freight rates, ex- 

 pected soon, will also push up the price 

 of coal. Director-General Hines, of the 

 railroad administration, says the rise of 

 51 to 52 per cent in the wages of rail- 

 road employees during the last year jus- 

 tifies an addition to the present rates. 

 The government faces a constantly 

 growing deficit in operating the rail- 

 roads. Senator Cummins, who will be 

 chairman of the Interstate Commerce 

 Commission, has prepared a program 

 that provides for an increase of freight 

 rates by July 1. Samuel O. Dunn, editor 

 of Eailway Age, who is regarded as an 

 authority in his field, declares that an 



DR. HARRT A. GARFIELD, 



United States Fuel Administrator, 

 Says: 



"I feel boimd to say that we 

 are likely to experience a coal 

 famine in the early falL I warn 

 the apartment house owners, the 

 home dwellers and factory pro- 

 prietors to buy coal now. In Au- 

 gust, or the autumn, it will be too 

 late. A big shortage is coming. 

 Thousands of miners are going 

 back to Europe. Coal production 

 has fallen off considerably, and a 

 shortage of many million tons 

 looks probable. My advice to the 

 public is to buy coal right away." 



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