THE 



M 







WHAT WILL THE i^ 

 j^ NEW YEAR BRING? 



The dullness of many other lines of business a^ 1921 opens cames in 

 many florists' minds a question as to the prospects for the coming year in this 

 trade. Consideratimi of present conditions and the outlook for coming 

 moyiths establishes confidence of an excellent season for us all. 



ROM the day Henry Ford 

 started the price decline 

 by reducing the price of 

 his automobiles last Octo- 

 ber until he closed his big 

 factory last week there 

 has been a steadily grow- 

 ing sentiment that has 

 taken concrete form in 

 cancellations of orders by 

 retailers and jobbers in mercantile and 

 other lines/ and in what has been called 

 a "buyers' strike" on the part of the 

 public. The price reductions of Mr. 

 Ford and others confirmed in the pub- 

 lic's mind the idea long harbored there, 

 that there was a great 

 deal of water to be 

 squeezed out of the prices 

 it had been paying. So 

 the consumers at large de- 

 cided that they would 

 wait until things had hit 

 bottom before they re- 

 sumed purchases. After 

 the inauguration of the 

 buyers ' strike, the retailer 

 in general passed the buck 

 to the manufacturer in 

 the form of canceled or- 

 ders, determining to liqui- 

 date his own stock of 

 goods before he would 

 buy more. 



Downward Circle. 



Consequently, the man- 

 )ifacturcr, having no or- 

 ders to fill, in many cases 

 solved his problem tem- 

 ))orarily by closing down, 

 cither wholly or partly. 

 Unemployment and wage 

 reduction were the re- 

 sults. Soon the retailers 

 learned that they could not liquidate at 

 high prices, and tlie extraordinary 

 spectacle presented itself of shop keep- 

 ers cutting prices for Christmas instead 

 (if putting them up a notch. Even then, 

 there was less buying for the holiday 

 than is usual at that time. This con- 

 vinced retailors that prices must be 

 brought down in good earnest if buyers 

 were to be attracted into their shops 

 again. So there is a disposition now to 

 believe that prices in general are down 

 to somewhere near their proper level — 

 one cannot say normal, because the 

 times have so long been abnormal that 

 no one can tell what the normal for to- 

 day should be. 



A good many houses planned to begin 

 buying at the first of the year, counting 

 on cleaning out old stocks during Janu- 

 ary. There are many who must buy 

 for their own needs, because no one can 



continue indefinitely without doing so. 

 The buyers' strike cannot last long, 

 but is limited by the public's supply of 

 necessities. Once the resumption of 

 buying is started by some, others will 

 follow, and before long business will be 

 as strong as before. It looks as though 

 that resumption were near. 



Different Phenomena. 



One should remember that though 

 the decline in prices will end with most 

 of them remaining at the lower level, 

 the decline in business is a far different 

 phenomenon. Its end will be followed 

 by a rapid rise in the volume of general 



PREACH PROSPERITY 



Say It Seriously — It Is No Joke 



In this Country are 



1 05 Million People with money —much money. 



They must eat. They must be housed. 

 They must drink. They must be amused. 

 They must wear clothes and shoes. 

 They must have flowers. 



All this takes money. Many Billions! 

 Prosperity Depends on Money Circulation. 

 Keep Your Head Cool, Your Feet Warm, and 

 Your Money in Circulation. 



Nothing: Matters but Cold Feet. 

 Don't Bet Agfainst the United States. 



Pessimism Never Wins^^Times Will Be 



price decline is at an end and find the 

 country is not in the hands of the re- 

 ceivers. 



Apropos ofy.the latter point, one is, 

 to speak seriously, surprised at first 

 thought that the number of failures 

 during the last few months has been so 

 small. The number of real disasters in 

 all lines has been remarkable in view 

 of the intensive readjustment taking 

 place. There has been nothing approach- 

 ing a panic, nothing like demoralization. 

 The result has been only a smaller vol- 

 ume of business. The richness of the 

 country, the wealth acquired in the last 

 few years, is responsible. Almost every- 

 body is in shape to 

 survive a period of bad 

 weather so long as each 

 lias confidence that there 

 is to be clear sailing later. 

 The present state is that 

 of readjustment in prep- 

 aration for a fresh start, 

 not demoralization on the 

 verge of insolvency. The 

 agreement of all financial 

 prognosticators and busi- 

 ness forecasters on this 

 point is reassuring. 



One of these careful 

 students of the times pre- 

 sents the following as a 

 summary of the influences 

 that make the financial 

 and industrial outlook a 

 favorable one: 



business. The increase will be back to 

 the old level in some cases, and in others 

 to a point well above the former mark. 

 For instance, one can well believe that 

 the manufacture of automobiles will not 

 soon resume its former scale, but the 

 manufacture of railroad equipment, 

 building material and such lines will far 

 surpass the marks of the last few years. 

 Tlie country is in bad need of these 

 things, and the resumption of business 

 at a lower price level will be marked 

 by a great demand for them. 



Auspicious Omens. 



There is, indeed, reason for much 

 optimism in the outlook. Of course. 

 Republicans will say that the two time- 

 honored omens are auspicious, bumper 

 harvests last fall and a return of the 

 G. O. P. to power at Washington this 

 spring. Democrats, however, think the 



Favoring Factors. 



"1. The fall in prices, 

 insofar as it means reduc- 

 tion in the high cost of 

 Good living, which to the aver- 

 age citizen had become in- 

 tolerable a j'ear ago; also 

 in its effects on the credit situation, 

 now returning to norma Ij also in its 

 release of capital for financing legiti- 

 mate home requirements and require- 

 ments of Europe; also in the sobering 

 influence on labor radicalism of the 

 discovery that employment and wages 

 may, after all, be still dependent on effi- 

 ciency. 



"2. The last year's demonstration of 

 the power and readiness of the federal 

 reserve not only to alleviate a financial 

 crisis, but through applying tl'.c brakes 

 against credit inflation, to avert the 

 crisis itself. 



"3. The fact of the greatest harvest 

 in our history and of one of the largest 

 winter wheat crops on record sown this 

 autumn, at a moment when the whole 

 world needs it; this being one of the 

 foremost traditional influences in sus- 

 taining American prosperity; the lower 



