142 A. Imamctea 



given in tlie subcommittee's rei»orts just alluded to-^ In the present 

 paper, I intend to describe the earthquake a>s seen not only from my 

 own special viewpoint, but also from wider points of view, so as to 

 convey to my readers a general idea of the character of the catastrophe 

 as far as possible. 



As I have stated above, the disaster was extraordinarily heavy 

 in comparison with the magnitude of the shock. More than 95% of 

 the loss of property was due to the tire caused by the iirst quake. It 

 is to my utmost regret that we seismologists were able to take no 

 measures of precaution to avert such a disaster ; but I ask your in- 

 dulgence while I tell you of the facts. Our colleagues, especially 

 Prof. Omori, often advised the citizens of Tokyo to improve the con- 

 struction of the water-inpes which had frequently proved inefficient even 

 in the case of moderate shocks. In addition, I announced in 1905 

 through the Journal " Taiyo " ray opinion that there was a possibility 

 tliat Tokyo might be visited by a destructive earthquake in the near 

 future, to be followed, should the system and equipments of tire 

 ju-otection remain unimj)roved, by a general conflagration in the 

 course of which a loss of lives to the extent of 100,000 or more 

 might be experienced. I discussed this view in full detail, giving 

 first, a short history of previous earthquakes in Tokyo, secondly, a 

 description of certain destructive earthquakes which had been followed 

 by great fires, and thirdly, a statistical stud}' of seismic casualties in 

 Japan, which shows that while in the case of destructive earthquakes 

 without fire we experience, as a rule, a loss in tlie proportion of only 

 one life to every eleven houses wliich collapse, this ratio increases 

 three or four fold in cases when the quakes are followed by a general 

 outbreak of fire. Peojile, however, refused to believe me ; indeed, there 

 was even an eniinent scientist who once at that time and again in 

 1915, ridiculed my opinion as nothing but a rumour which might 

 cause a general panic. 



2. The Seismological Institute. As a seismologist, I was very 

 lucky to be able to experience the great shock at Tokyo. I was in 

 our Institute at the moment, could appreciate fully the earth-movement, 

 and after half an hour was able to give to more than a score of 

 journalists some briuf imformation about the exact time of the earth- 

 quake occurrence, the position of the epicentre, the character of the 



2) Beports (in Japanese) of the Imp. Earthq. Inv. Coram., No. 100, A, 



