739 



13 



develop near the producing area. If we keep our assumption 

 of 200,000 barrels per day production as an example area, we 

 could expect approximately 20 modest size business buildings, 

 and 2 small hotels for temporary personnel and approxi- 

 mately 400 homes for the 600 people directly emj^loyecl. . . . 

 Of course, new supporting services would go into the com- 

 munities to serve the families of the employees, providing new 

 jobs for those not directly associated with the industry. This 

 could produce a community of nearly 2,400 people and the 

 churches, schools, recreation and service buildings accom- 

 panying a small population center. Land use would be approx- 

 imately 6 square miles. . . . 



While larger, densely populated communities in other parts of the 

 United States might welcome such growth and development whole- 

 heartedly, Yakutat appears to have grave concerns about the possi- 

 bility of growing from 600 residents, mostly Tlingit Indians, to 2,400 

 residents, with the Indian population receding to a minority position. 

 The State of Alaska has offically expressed concern about the impact 

 of oil- and gas-induced growth in Yakutat on the existing economic 

 base, which includes fishing, timbering, tourism and recreation. The 

 community anticipates a dilemma in the near future as it must decide 

 whether to expand its geographic boundaries to increase the tax base 

 sufficiently to finance the burgeoning need for goods and services. To 

 do so would be to alter the character of the village and reduce the 

 native population to a minority position, thereby almost certainly 

 diluting the native character of the typical Yakutat lifestyle. This 

 problem is unique to Yakutat but is illustrative of the special problems 

 which may be found in virtually every State and locality facing OCS 

 development. Planning at the State and local level appears to be the 

 best mechanism for dealing with such anomalies, but Federal funding 

 within the philosophy and guidelines of the Coastal Zone Management 

 Act can make the financial difference between feasiblity and infeasi- 

 bility of such planning. 



A private consulting firm, Mathematical Sciences Northwest, Inc., 

 (MSNW) of Bellevue. Wash., is completing a detailed "Social and 

 Economic Impact Study of Oil-Related Activities in the Gulf of 

 Alaska.'" The study was financed by the Gulf of Alaska Operators 

 Committee, which is a group of oil companies who are anxious to begin 

 exploring and developing the gulf. The MSNW study has examined 

 a range of possibilities, from a total absence of oil discoveries in the 

 gulf (which it considers unlikely) to the discovery of 10 major oil- 

 fields with an output of 1.5 million barrels a day by 1985 (which, in the 

 study's view, is also improbable). The base case used in the draft 

 MSNW study, therefore, is a middle ground : 



Initial discovery during 1977 ; 

 Five major fields discovered eventually ; 

 Peak production of 550,000 barrels per day in 1985 ; 

 Use of two shore bases to support offshore activities ; 

 Construction of pipelines to two marine terminals ; 

 Shipment of crude from these terminals t-o markets in Lower 48 

 States ; 

 No liquid natural gas or petrochemical developments in Alaska. 



