740 



14 



Cumulative employment estimates in the draft MSNW base case are 

 as follows: 



1976: 



Direct 291 



Indirect 425 



Total - 716 



1980: 



Direct 1. 486 



Indirect 2, 170 



Total - 3,656 



1985: 



Direct 886 



Indirect 1. 294 



Total 2, 180 



If all new employees were immigrants to the area, and if most of 

 them (both permanent and temporary) brought families with them, 

 the cumulative population increases in the principally affected com- 

 munities along the coast would be : 



1976 1-396 



1980 ". 232 



1985 - 4, 426 



In fact, however, MSNW considers it unlikely that all new employees 

 will be immigrants, since many construction workers may seek OCS- 

 related work after completion of the xVlyeska pipeline. Temporary 

 Avorkers traditionally do not take dependents along on work assign- 

 ments. Therefore, a more realistic estimate of the cumulative popula- 

 tion increases might be about half of the above figures. 



Although the numbers themselves do not appear enormous, they 

 represent major impacts on small communities like Yakutat and Cor- 

 dova, which MSNW sees as the likely sites for onshore support bases. 



The draft MSNW report recognizes the dilemma that States and 

 municipalities face in trying to cope with such impacts. The problem, 

 in most cases, boils down to money and time. The draft report 

 describes the financial problems involved in providing public services 

 and facilities to meet growth impacts : 



The ability to provide the necessary incremental social serv- 

 ices, either at the local or the state levels, is clearly a function 

 of the financial resources available and the institutional con- 

 straints governing the responding agencies. The major sources 

 of revenue of the communities are the real and personal prop- 

 erty taxes and local sale taxes. In addition, the communities 

 can issue both general obligation and revenue bonds. 



* * * Obviously, a city like Yakutat with an annual budget 

 of $95,000 and a property tax base (assessed value) of $554,- 

 968 does not have the necessary fiscal capability. Even though 

 other cities have larger tax bases, all face the same dilemma. 

 The social capital required to serve a large population must be 

 in place at the point in time when the demand arises. There- 

 fore, actual social investment must be made in advance of fo- 

 tential revenues. In addition, sufficient investment to meet the 



