742 



16 



Until such "factors" become realities, and "assumptions" become 

 events, iState and local governments must continue to rely on theoreti- 

 cal possibilities and on extrapolation from experiences in other areas. 

 Even studies of past experience — as the Louisiana study shows — may 

 have serious shortcomings. But a close look at experience elsewhere 

 does provide the best information available in advance of actual 

 resource discoveries in new areas. For this reason, several stalf mem- 

 bers of the Committee's National Ocean Policy tjtudy, the Congres- 

 sional Office of Technology Assessment, and the Coastal Zone ]Manage- 

 ment Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

 sought such information in 197-i along the Scottish coast of the North 

 Sea. The hrst discovery of oli'shore oil m the British sector came in late 

 1970, and actual production of that oil is only now beginning. None- 

 theless, the coastal impacts of developing oli'shore fields in the North 

 Sea have already been substantial. Many of these eti'ects were de- 

 scribed in the committees publication, "North Sea Oil and Gas: 

 Impact of Development on the Coastal Zone,'' which was published 

 in October 1974. The report indicated that direct employment in 

 oil-support activities in northeast Scotland grew from 2,665 to 11,275 

 during the short period between December 1973 and March 1974. 

 Local eti'orts to plan for this explosive growth have not always been 

 successful. For instance, one platform fabrication plant estimated 

 in advance to employ 600 persons actually employs 3,000 in peak 

 periods. 



"Shortages of housing, skilled labor, berths in harbors, and equip- 

 ment have had an adverse impact on some of the older established 

 industries," the report found. 



The city of Aberdeen, now sometimes called the Houston of the 

 North, has experienced rapid growth because of oil. One consequence 

 of this growth has been skyrocketing prices for land. During the last 

 4 years, the NOPS study found, the price of industrial land with wa- 

 ter and sewer service in the Aberdeen area rose from $7,200 to as much 

 as $96,000 per acre. 



In the remote and sparsely settled Shetland Islands 200 miles off 

 the north coast of Scotland, the proposed site for a deepwater tanker 

 port to handle North Sea oil, the NOPS investigation found a near 

 doubling of population to be likely. The island county planners had 

 predicted a very modest growth from 17,327 persons in 1971 to 17,900 

 by 1991 before knowing about the oil. Now, it is expected that the pop- 

 ulation will reach 30,000 by the early 1990's. 



The Shetlands represent a unique study of how one remote area has 

 dealt with the prospect of sudden population growth, new demands for 

 municipal services, and intrusion of a new industry into a rural com- 

 munity. Shetland planners adopted a plan to contain onshore develop- 

 ment at one site only. They succeeded in acquiring needed information 

 about industry requirements, took action to inform the public about 

 the needed facilities, and gained significant powei-s through parliamen- 

 tary legislation, thus giving themselves the tools they needed to deal 

 effectively with their new neighbors, the offshore petroleum industry. 



A second study of the Scottish experience with offshore oil was car- 

 ried out by Pamela and Malcolm Baldwin under the auspices of the 

 Conservation Foundation and published in early 1975. Called "On- 

 shore Planning for Offshore Oil : Lessons from Scotland," the Foun- 

 dation report found the Scottish situation more likely to parallel 



