WEATHER PROGRAM 



James R. Smith 

 Research Triangle Institute 



Jesse R. Gulick 

 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 



ABSTRACT 



The National Weather Service (formerly ESSA-Weather Bureau) 

 was contacted in early March 1970, regarding the provision 

 of operational weather support for the TEKTITE II activities 

 in the Virgin Islands area during the months of April through 

 October. Utilization of existing facilities was deemed 

 adequate for the required level of support. The Miami Section 

 of the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, under the direction of 

 Mr. J. R. Gulick, undertook the coordination of these facilities, 

 drawing primarily upon the adjacent National Hurricane Center 

 in Miami and the NWS forecast office in San Juan, Puerto Rico. 

 Arrangements were made for the provision of routine daily 

 weather and sea condition forecasts by the San Juan office. 

 Longer range forecasts, particularly in regard to tropical 

 storm threats, and climatological studies were to be furnished 

 by the Miami office. 



The required support was provided, for the most part, accord- 

 ing to the plans outlined above. San Juan provided the 

 daily support with backup and special outlooks from Miami. 

 A special study of all recorded storm tracks was made in 

 order to obtain the unconditional probability of tropical 

 storm occurrence near the Virgin Islands during any specified 

 portion of the season. Furthermore, a computerized technique 

 was developed for determining from any given location of an 

 existing tropical storm the probability of that storm 

 eventually affecting the TEKTITE II area of operations 

 and the most likely time of its doing so. 



Fortunately, 1970 was a year of low storm incidence in that 

 part of the tropics. No hurricanes and only one named 

 tropical storm threatened the area. The center of tropical 

 storm "Dorothy" passed some two hundred miles south of the 

 Virgin Islands on August 21. However, this storm had already 

 declined from its state of greatest intensity, and it continued 

 to weaken as it moved westward across the Caribbean. 



Several lesser weather systems affected or threatened the 

 area. Probably the most significant of these lesser systems 

 was a very slow moving "depression" which caused a week of 

 excessive rains and attendant flooding throughout Puerto 

 Rico and the Virgin Islands in early October. This system 

 was near tropical storm intensity at times, but apparently 



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