131 



To increase 8-fold would require further growth as follows: 



100,000-200,000 mw 

 200,000-400,000 mw 

 400,000-800,000 mw 



1954-1970, 16 years; 

 1970-1985, 16 years; 

 1985-2000, 15 years. 



7.4 It has also been estimated that 50% of the installed capacity in 

 2000 will be nuclear plants . ( '' Using these figures, the following 

 table has been constructed: 



Thermal Electrical 



capacity 

 utility 

 plants 



mw 



capacity 



utility 



plants 



mw 



Electri- 

 cal pro- 

 Electrical duction 

 production kw 

 kw years hours 



6.3x10' 5.5x10 



11 



7.8x10' 6.8x10 

 200,000 10.9xl0 7 9.5x10 



11 

 11 



1956 460,000 115,000 



I960 568,000 142,000 



1970 800,000 



1980 



2000 4,000,000 1,000,000 54.5xl0 7 47.5xlO U 700,000 



Using a thermal capacity of 700,000 mw x 8,760,000 (kwh per mw year) 

 gives a total of 6.1 x 10 * kwh (heat) that would be produced by the op- 

 eration of nuclear plants in the year 2000. 



7.5 If each metric ton of natural uranium is irradiated to 4000 megawatt 

 days per ton as heat, approximately 63,500 tons of natural uranium 

 would be required per year to produce 6. 1 x 10^ kilowatt hours of heat. 



7.6 Plants now under construction or contemplated will have an installed 

 electrical capacity of approximately 100 megawatts each. Assuming 

 25% thermal efficiency, such a plant would consume approximately 36 

 tons of natural uranium per year at 4000 megawatt days per metric ton. 

 In the future it is quite probable that plants of 1000 megawatt electrical 

 capacity could be built. At 4000 megawatt days per ton and 25% thermal 

 efficiency, such a plant would require 365 tons of fuel per year, with a 

 100% load factor. If the capacity of the average nuclear plant were to be 

 500 megawatts electrical (or 2000 megawatts heat) 350 nuclear plants 

 might be in operation in the United States by the year 2000. ( ' 



