1998 Year of the Ocean Impacts of Global Climate Change 



systems, the predictive air-sea interactive signal in the Atlantic known as the North Atlantic 

 Oscillation, and decadal and longer climate variability. 



Techniques and Arrangements for Managing Seasonal to Interannual Climate Impacts 



NOAA, through the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental 

 Prediction, currently provides operational seasonal forecasts based on a combination of 

 dynamical model and statistical predictions for the U.S. for up to one year. NOAA actively 

 coordinates its efforts with other federal agencies, principally NSF, NASA, and DOE. In addition 

 to the federal agencies, the global nature of the climate signal requires involvement with 

 universities and international agencies. These partnerships remain essential to develop the 

 practical benefits of ENSO forecasts, and to move toward the understanding and prediction of 

 other forms of climate variability. 



Research programs are being developed to extend the predictability of ENSO and the 

 accompanying oceanic and meteorological effects. These programs include the Global Ocean 

 Atmosphere Land System Program which extends the original research effort begun by the 

 Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Program, and the Global Energy and Water Cycle 

 Experiment Program which improves the parameterization of water and energy fluxes in coupled 

 air-ocean-land models. 



A multinational Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction Program (SCPP) was 

 designed to provide reliable forecasts and analyses of climate variations on seasonal to 

 interannual time scales, and to develop the infrastructure by which this information can be used. 

 The goal of SCPP is to take the next step toward reliable forecasts and analyses of climate 

 variations on seasonal and interannual time scales, and to develop the infrastructure by which 

 this can be used for social and economic benefit by all countries of the world. The program 

 would initially focus on forecasting ENSO and the related climate impacts (atmospheric 

 circulation, precipitation, and surface temperature), and will expand based on the results of 

 continuing research. 



A key component of the SCPP plan is the development of an end-to-end forecasting 

 system to develop, improve, and transfer climate modeling technology from research centers to 

 other centers which routinely produce and disseminate climate forecasts to affected local 

 communities and local decision makers. This includes the establishment of an International 

 Research Institute for Climate Prediction. This institute has the responsibility for generating and 

 distributing experimental forecasts multinationally. The forecast information will be tailored to 

 the specific area and take into account climate conditions, forecast needs, and interests as 

 indicated by local decision makers and managers. 



Issues Pertaining to Education and Human Resources 



A major focus of climate research is the development of an informed and responsible 

 citizenry who are knowledgeable about climate variability. This includes assessing the impacts of 



G-16 



