1998 Year of the Ocean Impacts of Global Climate Change 



Issues Pertaining to Education and Human Resources 



The Earth's cHniate system is extremely intricate. Clouds, ocean currents, solar radiation 

 and other elements interact in a complex way to determine our climate. Mathematical models 

 allow us to study parts of the climate system and how those parts interact. Even though these 

 models include many aspects of the climate system (air, oceans, land, biology) partitioned into 

 many small grid boxes, and may require weeks of powerful computer time to run, they are 

 relatively simple when compared to the natural system. The models indicate that temperature 

 could rise considerably over some areas of the globe due to increased emissions of greenhouse 

 species. The issue is one of how accurate are these predictions. 



Despite their complexity, current models do not adequately represent the roles of the 

 ocean and clouds in the climate system. These models do provide useful insights into the climate 

 system. When attempting to make conclusions regarding long-term climate variability, these 

 models require decades of precise observations to verify. Only now are we approaching 

 possessing a long enough record of precise data to make some preliminary assessments regarding 

 model predictions. Unfortunately, the long periods involved in the oceanic response and the large 

 inertia of the ocean mean that any actions taken to reverse impacts of man on long-term climate 

 will require decades to centuries before significant impacts could occur. 



Summary 



Observations describe variations in the climate system, whereas models provide a 

 mechanism for understanding why such variations occur and for predicting the future evolution 

 of the climate system. A three-pronged program of integrated research has been used to improve 

 representation of climate processes in models and to collect long-term instrumental and proxy 

 observations in the oceans: (1) retrieval and analysis of instrumental and paleoclimate data to 

 develop the long data-sets needed for detection studies and to test hypotheses and develop 

 sampling strategies; (2) collection of new data for continued detection efforts based on analyses 

 and weaknesses of the historical data; and (3) model studies using historical and new data to 

 validate and initialize simulations and perform attribution studies. The benefits to society of this 

 approach are: (1) improved detection of climate change signals in the ocean; (2) improved 

 models of natural and anthropogenic climate variability; (3) quantification of the predictability of 

 long-time scale climate variability; and (4) reduced uncertainties in CO warming scenarios. 



Options for Consideration 



In order to better understand the changes in the earth's climate and what types of impacts 

 would occur, the following suggestions are offered: 



• Conduct the research necessary to develop improved models of the coupled ocean- 

 atmosphere system for long-term climate prediction purposes, including the use of 

 proxy and paleo-indicators, continuation and enhancements of long-term observing 

 programs, as well as conducting process research. 



G-23 



