1998 Year of the Ocean Mitigating the Impacts of Coastal Hazards 



STATUS OF THE RELEVANT SCIENCE AND TECHNICAL BASE 



Scientific Understanding of Hazards 



The previous discussion of key issues and strategies provides a general overview of the 

 management topics associated with efforts to minimize the impacts of natural coastal hazards. To 

 improve these management strategies and make additional progress in all phases of disaster and 

 hazards management, it is necessary to acknowledge the scientific and technological information 

 needs throughout the various hazards-related disciplines. Significant progress has been made in 

 the research and science associated with natural hazards during the past 20 years, and 

 improvements in technology and understanding about hazards and how to mitigate them continue 

 to expand our opportunities to reduce their impacts. 



Many improvements in coastal hazards management are rooted in a better scientific 

 understanding of how the hazards affect the earth, both in natural and developed areas. 

 Universities and research institutions (particularly the National Science Foundation), along with 

 government agencies such as NOAA and USGS that maintain scientific hazards-related 

 responsibilities, have contributed to advances in the scientific study of natural hazards. There is 

 now more quantitative information available about the origins and behavior of hazard events that 

 can be used for purposes of hazard mitigation. 



Hazards Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 



A major area encompassing new research and technical needs is that of hazards risk and 

 vulnerability assessment. Maps delineating hazard-prone areas at national, state, and local levels 

 are needed to provide a more comprehensive hazards assessment using information on a variety 

 of natural phenomena, including coastal storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, 

 wildfires, and drought. Much of this information already exists, but issues such as data 

 integration, compatibility, scales, accuracy, and resolution need to be addressed to make the 

 information useful at the local level. Better methodologies and models are also needed for 

 conducting hazard vulnerability assessments that can incorporate highly variable local conditions 

 and characteristics. 



Hazard risk models in use today usually include data on many risk variables and can 

 begin to provide estimates on projected disaster losses and other impacts using pre-determined 

 scenarios. FEMA's Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) model, designed to estimate disaster losses from 

 earthquakes, is a valuable tool for this type of analysis. HAZUS is currently being updated to 

 model the effects of wind and flood damages. 



Ideally, risk and vulnerability models of the future will provide interactive scenarios for 

 determining hazard vulnerabilities based on estimated population growth and other "what if 

 criteria such as land use changes or building code changes. Other advances needed in risk and 

 vulnerability assessment include the ability to identify potential social, economic, and 

 environmental losses. Better hazard assessment tools should improve research capabilities for 



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