269 

 The total heat exchange Q£ indicates the amoxmt of heat gained or lost 

 by the sea in 2k- hours. Figure 5 shows the total heat exchange distribution 

 at 2 given days in the winter and summer, respectively. High loss of heat 

 along the east coast of Asia can be observed during the winter over an area 

 which reaches to a relatively low latitude (ca. 20^) and a considerable 

 distance out from the coast (to ca. 165 E). Eastern and southeastern parts 

 of the ocean show relatively low loss or gain of heat during the same date. 



The distribution of Q^ in summer is more latitudinal and is affected by 

 meteorological conditions as shown by Figures 5^ 6, and f. 



SIMPLIFIED PHYSICAL MODEL RELATING HEAT EXCHANGE PATTERNS TO 

 CYCLONES AND ANTICYCLONES 



Based on the examination of a number of synoptic heat exchange computa- 

 tions over the North Pacific a simplified physical model, relating the heat 

 exchange patterns to cyclones and anticyclones, is presented in Figure 8. This 

 model is largely self-explanatory. It shows the location of the heat exchange 

 patterns with the developmental stages of the cyclone as well as in the vicinity 

 of the surrounding anticyclones. The adjacent cyclones and anticyclones are 

 connected to each other through "common" heat exchange patterns, as schematically 

 shown in Figure 9. Figure 10 presents a hypothetical vertical E-W section of 

 a cyclone as it might be related to the heat exchange processes. Figure 11 gives 

 a scheme of heat exchange, flow patterns and upper level topography of a warm 

 sector cyclone . Whether the simplified models in Figures 8 to 11, derived from 

 an examination of 30 synoptic Qa charts, correspond exactly to the processes in 

 nature or need further testing and improvement is not subject to discussion here; 

 their importance lies in the fact that they fit without serious discrepancies 

 and lead to the consideration that the sea-air heat exchange patterns might be 

 related to upper air patterns. In fact, a study of the 500-mb small scale (SD) 

 patterns shows a remarkable similarity to the heat exchange patterns, especially 

 with regard to position. Tests were made, therefore, using the 500-mb SD pat- 

 terns for analysis as well as forecasting of surface pressure distribution. 

 (The pattern separation procedure has been described by Holl, 1963)' The con- 

 struction of surface flow patterns from 500-mb SD patterns is shown in Figure 

 12. The positions of surface lows and highs and their central pressures are 

 also indicated, using preliminary relations between SD central values and 

 central pressures at the surface (Figure 13). The results of another preliminary 

 study show that cyclone centers should be sloped about k° latitude ENE of SD 

 centers and anticyclone centers about 5° toward 120 . As the 500-mb forecasts 

 usually show somewhat better skill over longer forecasting periods {kS to 72 

 hours), this model has led to a possible auxiliary surface forecasting procedure. 

 Some numerical results of verification and comparison tests of this model for 

 k8 and 72 hours compared with the operational Fleet Numerical Weather Facility 

 surface model are shown in Table 3. A report on the incorporation of the above 

 results in extended numerical forecasts (3 days) is in preparation at Fleet 

 Numerical Weather Facility. 



