1 probably the least likely of all, because it is an exploration scenario 



2 with a blow-out preventer at the bottom that fails. 



3 Other than the exploration phase where you actually have a blow- 



4 out right on the ocean floor, once you go to development drilling, you 



5 don't have that type of weak link in the system, you know. You are 



6 driving a conductor pipe 100, 200, 300 feet down into the ocean floor 



7 from the platform, and you have a continuous connection there. 



8 You don't have a movable breakable joint like a blow-out preventer 



9 that's used in the exploratory drilling at the ocean floor, so just from 



10 perspective, you are dealing with the lowest probability of all the 



11 scenarios you can possibly deal with when you deal with a sub-surface 



12 blow-out. 



13 DR. AURAND: Actually, if I remember what we have been presenting 



14 in Florida--and it has not been my job--I don't think we have had a 



15 blow-out on an exploratory rig. 



16 DR. RAY: In the U.S., as far as I know, we have never had an 



17 exploratory blow-out. 



18 DR. AURAND: We have never had an exploratory blow-out and there 



19 are something like in excess of 8,000 exploratory rigs in that data 



20 base. Even that is an extremely unlikely event, but-- 



21 DR. RAY: It's worth considering, but you need to put it in 



22 perspective with the other scenarios. 



23 DR. KRAEUTER: I was bringing it up more for just discussion 



24 purposes, separating it from a spill. 



25 DR. AURAND: Yes, and I think it is a worthwhile discussion as to 



26 whether you want to separate the two. The only thing I would tell 



27 everybody is that it is 5 minutes after 5:00. 



28 DR. TEAL: One other thing. The National Academy Committee on 



29 Dispersements, the whole discussion of dispersements is to mix the oil 



30 with the water; that's the whole point of the dispersements. 



31 I think it would be fair to say that the general conclusion was 



32 that in water as deep as 2 or 3 hundred meters, dispersing a spill into 



33 the water column was considered to be one of the best ways of diluting 



34 it rapidly to the point where it would have little effect. 



326 



