lysis. If one were to plot the quantity of fish and 

 shellfish that would be forthcoming at successively 

 higher relative prices-i.e., supply response to 

 secular growth in demand with its accompanying 

 growth in prices— one would obtain an estimate of 

 production from the sea that will yield an eco- 

 nomic return equal to or greater than that from 

 other goods or services produced with the same 

 capital and labor inputs. 



It must be stressed, however, that a supply 

 function of this type is strictly static in nature. 

 Over time, increased rates of use of existing fishery 

 resources generate pressure on costs but also 

 generate incentives to reheve the pressure in a 

 variety of ways. There is a strong business incen- 

 tive to find ways to exploit presently underutilized 

 or unutilized species; to reduce fishing costs and 

 thus to extend the geographic coverage of the 

 industry; and to devise new processing and market- 

 ing methods that will increase consumer accept- 

 ance. 



A supply function geared entirely to present 

 fishing technology, present fishing locations, and 

 present patterns of demand would probably show 

 rapidly increasing costs at an output of perhaps 75 

 to 85 million metric tons. However, if account is 

 taken of recent improvements in vessel and gear 

 technology, in our ability to preserve the quahty 

 of sea foods during storage and transportation, and 

 in our capacity to alter the physical composition 

 of marine products in order to improve their 

 marketabUity— all products of research, develop- 

 ment, and simple business ingenuity— it is clear 

 that the aggregate potential from the sea is much 

 greater than such a static analysis would suggest. 

 And this means greater yield in the economic 

 sense: that is, output that can be sold profitably at 

 market-determined prices. 



Two current examples might be cited. The 

 development of new fishing methods tailored to a 

 specific set of fish characteristics has opened the 

 way for a new industry on the Pacific coast on 

 reduction of previously unused hake stocks. The 

 development of economically feasible fish protein 

 concentrates promises even greater opportunities 

 to turn fish previously regarded as scrap into 

 profitable products. 



The nature of the long run supply function and 

 its dynamic movements over time cannot be 



determined from a simple extrapolation of histor- 

 ical data. In broad terms, the first decade after 

 World War II was marked by a significant expan- 

 sion of fish landings, largely from areas previously 

 fished and from species known to exist in mar- 

 ketable quantities. The increase came in part from 

 the accumulation of stocks on areas fished more 

 Ughtly during World War II and in part from 

 improvements in gear and vessels. In a second 

 phase of expansion, now tapering off, the increase 

 was carried forward by geographic expansion of 

 world fishing in general and by further improve- 

 ments in gear and fishing techniques. Several new 

 fisheries were brought into production, of which 

 the most spectacular was the grov/th of the 

 anchovetta fishery in Peru. The coasts of West 

 Africa and South America came into much greater 

 prominence with rapid increases in landings of 

 both demersal and pelagic species. Expansion of 

 market interest in and production of tuna and 

 tuna-Uke fishes and billfish in tropical waters 

 extending westward and eastward from each of the 

 major continents has continued. Expansion of 

 shrimp production has gone forward steadily; 

 more than 50 nations are now engaged in the 

 operation. 



Again, however, this type of expansion is 

 bound to be self-limiting, since it involves exploita- 

 tion of Continental Shelf fish and shellfish (and 

 the relatively high-priced pelagics) that can be taken 

 with known fishing techniques. This suggests that 

 further expansion will come from a wide variety of 

 iimovations to permit harvesting species that can- 

 not be utilized economically with present methods 

 and conversion of previously unmarketable fish to 

 products that are profitable. There are very large 

 populations of edible pelagic fish (or of fish 

 capable of being converted into fish meal or edible 

 fish protein concentrate) that are Ughtly fished or 

 completely unused, but problems in locating, 

 concentrating, harvesting, and processing remain 

 to be solved before these stocks can become 

 economically significant resources. Utilization of 

 some species is also held back by inadequate 

 knowledge of yield potentials and uncertainty 

 about parameters determining availabiUty. It may 

 well be, then, that we will see a new surge of 

 activity, but only after a time lag determined 

 largely by the vigor with which national and 

 international oceanography effort is pressed. 



VIM 2 



