a good possibility of expanding pelagic fish catches 

 and in the Northeastern Pacific further increases in 

 flounder catches are likely. 



The following species and areas appear to have 

 the greatest growth potential contingent on exist- 

 ing technology: 



-Herring-like fishes. Arabian Sea, California, 

 Chile, Argentina, Gulf of Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, 

 Venezuela, Northern Brazil, West Africa 



—Hakes. Chile, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, West 

 Africa 



—Clams. Worldwide 



—Flounders. Northeast Pacific, Patagonian Shelf, 

 New Zealand 



—Tuna and jacks and some saury. New Zealand, 

 Australia, Mid-Pacific, Atlantic. 



If we anticipate continued development of our 

 ability to locate, concentrate, and harvest, the 

 following marine forms might provide major in- 

 creases in production: 



—Squids 



—Clams 



—Pelagic ocean fishes, such as bristle mouth, saury, 

 tuna, jacks, and pomfrets 



-Redfish 



—Smelts and herring-Uke fishes 



—"Deep sea" forms— (500-2,000 meters) (e.g., 

 rattails). 



This discussion has been limited to fish and 

 shellfish, but we should not overlook the likeli- 

 hood that man may evolve extractive processes 

 which will allow him to move further down the 

 food chain. Soviet scientists and technologists 

 working on the harvest of krill in the Antarctic 

 regions estimate a potential annual production 

 ranging upward from 100 milUon metric tons. A 

 similar product forms the basis for a large part of 

 the fish sauce used extensively in Southeast Asia 

 and Japan. A breakthrough which makes it eco- 

 nomically possible to harvest forms lower in the 



food chain would greatly alter concepts of ocean 

 food potentials. Similarly, greater efforts to har- 

 vest bivalves which also feed on sources close to 

 primary production would greatly increase ocean 

 yields. 



Full use of natural potential does not preclude 

 the possibility of increased production through 

 environment control and extensive marine culture. 

 As yet, however, these types of productive effort 

 are limited in scope, and even in Japan they have 

 been concentrated almost entirely on high-valued 

 luxury items with relatively low production and in 

 estuarine areas. 



The pace of science has tended to make all 

 forecasts in the natural resources area unduly 

 pessimistic in retrospect, and the same may be true 

 in the ocean fisheries field. Nevertheless, it is a 

 hard fact that most of the unused and under- 

 utilized protein potential from the sea is distrib- 

 uted over vast areas in extremely low concentra- 

 tions. In many respects the technological task of 

 using these resources— location, concentration, and 

 low-cost processing of large masses— is quite similar 

 to the job facing the potential user of minerals 

 from the sea, except that the mobility factor 

 makes it even harder to utilize fish resources 

 efficiently. 



If man is to take the largest remaining step in 

 harvesting the living organisms of the sea he must 

 first make some very large preparatory jumps at 

 the scientific and engineering levels. 



IV. THE NATIONAL FISHERIES 



A. Demand 



The Economics Division of the Bureau of 

 Conmiercial Fisheries is now undertaking detailed 

 analysis of factors affecting the demand for fish, 

 from which more reliable long run forecasts can be 

 made. At the moment, it is possible to indicate 

 only in general terms what these factors are and 

 the direction of change in demand each may be 

 expected to induce. 



The following major factors determine total 

 national demand for fish: 



—The level of personal income per capita 

 —Aggregate size of the population 



VII- 15 



