Of greater long run significance is the rapid 

 growth in the demand for fish as an intermediate 

 product. The per capita demand for fish in the 

 developed countries must be revised to include the 

 huge and continuing increase in consumption of 

 marine fish products in the form of fish meal. High 

 quality protein meals have now become a standard 

 element in feeding programs for poultry and meat 

 producers, and though they are sharply competi- 

 tive in these uses with other sources of protein, 

 such as soya bean meal, they are continuing to 

 expand their market position and will do so as 

 long as the relative prices of fishmeal remain 

 favorable. Though fish meal is produced from 

 smaller fish, generally commanding much lower 

 prices than those consumed directly by human 

 beings, its contribution to a varied and high 

 quality protein diet is no less real. There is no 

 reason why the food industry should not use land 

 animals as converters of forage fish rather than 

 tuna or other predators in the sea. 



While it is difficult to generalize about all 

 underdeveloped areas, there are certain common 

 characteristics of the demand for marine seafoods 

 in these countries. The most striking is the 

 strength of the demand for fish, not only for its 

 important nutritional characteristics in areas sub- 

 ject to chronic protein and caloric deficiencies, 

 but on grounds of tastes and preferences. Though 

 much has been made of the isolated cases in which 

 protein deficiency exists side by side with abun- 

 dant fish supplies because of reUgious or other 

 taboos, these are rare exceptions indeed. In most 

 of the emerging economies with access to the sea, 

 fish have always provided an important source of 

 food, and rising incomes, particularly in the rapidly 

 growing urban areas oriented to international 

 trade, have typically produced a striking increase 

 in the demand for fish. Similarly, wherever tech- 

 nological developments have expanded sharply the 

 capacity of indigenous fisheries (or created new 

 ones), the task of creating the necessary processing 

 and marketing apparatus to distribute the in- 

 creased landings has been, on the whole, much 

 easier than expected because of the strength of 

 demand for the products. 



The demand for fish has also responded posi- 

 tively, and will continue to do so, to improve- 

 ments in nutritional knowledge and in the quality 

 and diversity of fish products. Even in areas where 

 taboos against consumption of fish have been 



relatively strong, the use of fish as food in schools, 

 hospitals, and other institutions, coupled with a 

 rising Uteracy rate, has tended to break down the 

 resistance to using marine resources. Finally, these 

 are the areas of the world in which population is 

 increasing most rapidly. (Christy-Scott, 1965) 



These, then, are the forces behind the rapid 

 post-World War II increase in demand for fish 

 products. Nothing in the current or prospective 

 market situation would indicate any decUne in the 

 rate of increase in demand for fish products in the 

 near future, and only revolutionary changes in 

 social attitudes toward population control would 

 produce any perceptible slowing down in that 

 growth over longer periods. Clearly, the market is 

 there; the physical need is there; the task is to 

 appraise accurately man's abUity to meet those 

 needs and to do it as efficiently and expeditiously 

 as possible. There does not seem to be any major 

 reason to regard demand as a serious constraint on 

 the abihty to expand world fishing operations on a 

 profitable basis. 



C. Production Possibilities from the Sea 



Interest in the ocean's living resources is not 

 new, and literature dealing with conservation and 

 ocean resources dates well back into EngUsh 

 history. In the early part of the 13th century 

 conservationists were pleading for restrictions on 

 man's fishing techniques lest he destroy the coastal 

 resources. In more recent times it would appear 

 that Thompson (1951), at a United Nations- 

 sponsored conference on the conservation and 

 utilization of resources, was one of the first to 

 estimate production capabiUty of the oceans, and 

 to demonstrate the pitfalls involved. From a 

 known production (18 milhon tons) he estimated 

 that a 20 per cent increase over prewar catches was 

 possible; that is, about 21.6 million metric tons 

 per year. This estimate excluded the catch taken 

 by the U.S.S.R. and the yield from fresh and 

 brackish waters. Of course, this estimated poten- 

 tial was exceeded by the middle of the past 

 decade. 



In recent years a number of fishery scientists 

 and oceanographers have become seriously con- 

 cerned to provide a more systematic appraisal of 

 the ocean's fish potential. Despite their efforts, 

 however, current estimates range from approxi- 

 mately 55 to 2,000 million metric tons armuaUy, a 



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