1966base 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000% 1100% 1200% 1300% 1400% 1500% 1600% 1700% 



38 minerals 

 Projections of U.S. mean demand in the year 2000 



1966 consumption taase- 



-Higli projection 

 —Low projection 



Figure 2. 38 minerals-projections of U.S. mean demand in the year 2000. 



Simple least square regression curves are best fit 

 (assuming significance) by computer to base pro- 

 jection curves (independent variables) such as 

 Federal Reserve Board Index, Gross National 

 Product, Steel Production, Population, Time, 

 Gross Private Business Investment, and Gross 

 Private Domestic Investment. Obviously, uncer- 

 tainties multiply with each passing decade, so that 

 the more distant projections are less reliable than 

 those of the near term. Basic assumptions which 

 underlie all the projections are continuing gains in 

 technology, improvements in political and social 

 arrangements, and a reasonably free flow of world 

 trade. It is also assumed that there will be neither a 

 large-scale war nor another depression. 



As Figures 1 and 2 show, the projected rise in 

 demand for different minerals over the next 



30-plus years will be uneven. For new suppHes of 

 lead and tin the mean increase in demand over 

 1966 levels is only 8 and 11 per cent, respectively, 

 to 1985, and 34 and 22 per cent respectively to 

 the year 2000. On the other hand, the projected 

 mean increase in demand for industrial diamonds 

 is 175 per cent to 1985 and 475 per cent to 2000, 

 while the projected demand for titanium is an 

 astonishing 661 per cent to 1985 and 2184 per 

 cent to 2000. However, it should be noted that the 

 projection for titanium starts from a very small 

 base. 



Are supplies of minerals available to the United 

 States from conventional land sources without a 

 significant increase in price adequate to meet the 

 projected demands? The answer is an unquaUfied 

 yes for some mineral commodities, including iron, 



VII-97 



