stimulate the competition to satisfy the demands 

 for mineral resources. The purchaser of minerals, it 

 must be remembered, is generally indifferent as to 

 the source of supply; liis basic criterion is price. 

 Thus, the question arises as to which of the many 

 metals and compounds that might be recovered 

 from marine sources will be able to compete 

 against identical commodities recovered from on- 

 shore sources. The answer to this question Lies in 

 part in physical occurrence, a matter of geology, 

 but more importantly it lies in the feasibility of 

 large-scale recovery, a matter of technology and 

 economics. (A third factor, inability to gain access 

 to markets because of corporate or goverrmiental 

 controls, is not considered here.) 



The question of the likely competitive standing 

 of marine mineral resources can be better deline- 

 ated if the commodities most abundant offshore 

 are divided into three groups. 



First, there is a group in which marine recovery 

 already dominates the market. Among this group 

 are magnesium and magnesium compounds, bro- 

 mine, and shell (locally), and in some areas of the 

 world, sodium compounds. 



In certain of these cases, as the bromine and 

 shell, land resources are so inferior in quantity if 

 not in quality that there is little question of the 

 dominance of ocean sources. In other cases, as 

 with magnesium, onshore sources continue to 

 exert a strong competitive influence. Except for 

 shell, these commodities are recovered from sea 

 water, so that capacity is set only by plant size and 

 not by the characteristics of a deposit. In any 

 event, ocean sources set the competitive standard 

 against which land sources must compete. Thus, 

 there is Uttle need to consider this group of 

 commodities further; they have proved their 

 ability to compete and their main impact on land 

 resources has already been registered. 



A second group of commodities lies at the 

 opposite extreme. These are the commodities for 

 which no reasonably likely scale of marine mining 

 would have a significant impact on world markets. 

 In this group are boron compounds, copper, gold, 

 iron, and platinum. Gold, in particular, is being 

 located in offshore placers and such deposits may 

 come to be a major source of supply. The 

 implication of placing gold in this second group 

 does not deny this possibility but only indicates 

 that offshore recovery is unlikely to affect the 

 $35.00 per ounce price. In effect, sand and gravel 



and calcium compounds can be added to the list, 

 though they may be important competitors 

 locally. As with the first group, these commodities 

 need not be considered further. 



Thus, the import of the question comes down 

 to a third group, those commodities that are 

 sufficiently abundant in the oceans to make a 

 significant impact on world markets but for which 

 an economic recovery technology needs to be 

 developed before the potential can be realized. 

 Perhaps most interesting of the commodities in 

 this group are the phosphorite nodules and man- 

 ganese nodules (containing cobalt, copper, and 

 nickel as well as manganese). Other possibilities 

 include barium, potassium compounds, and 

 strontium. In addition, the group must include 

 commodities that are already recovered in part 

 from the ocean but from which a greater impact 

 would occur with additional technologic improve- 

 ments: diamonds, sodium and sodium compounds, 

 sulphur, and heavy minerals (in particular zir- 

 conium, tin, and titanium minerals). These are the 

 corrunodities that require additional attention. 



Phosphorite nodules would presumably be 

 mined as an input for fertilizer production. As 

 such, they would have to compete against onshore 

 phosphate deposits that typically are not only of 

 higher grade but also relatively easily worked. 

 Therefore, the potential of offshore sites depends 

 upon locational advantages, areas far from present 

 sources of supply. These circumstances, together 

 with the rapidly rising use of fertilizers the world 

 over, indicate that offshore phosphate mining, 

 even when it becomes feasible, will have relatively 

 little impact on conventional sources. In most 

 places new offshore sources are more likely to 

 increase the rate of use of fertilizer products than 

 to substitute for onshore sources of supply. 



The situation is quite different with manganese 

 nodules. All indications are that when and if deep 

 sea mining becomes feasible, production of manga- 

 nese nodules will have to be maintained at a high 

 rate, certainly high enough to have an effect in the 

 market place. 



Of the four most abundant metals (apart from 

 iron) in the nodules, manganese and cobalt are 

 most vulnerable to market impact, nickel some- 

 what less so, and copper essentially immune. 

 Reasonably likely rates of mining by a few ships 

 could supply anywhere from 10 per cent to 100 

 per cent of total U.S. consumption of manganese 



Vim 3 



