and much more than current consumption of 

 cobalt. While cobalt is a byproduct, it is a 

 relatively expensive one, and production from 

 existing sources might be curtailed to cushion the 

 shock. But with manganese, at least some existing 

 sources are both rich and inexpensive to mine, 

 although they suffer from a locational disad- 

 vantage, they could withstand large price cuts 

 before leaving the markets. It is impossible to 

 predict the impact. However, under one hypotheti- 

 cal but reasonable projection it is estimated that 

 the price of manganese in ore (standard grade) 

 would fall to around two cents per pound.** The 

 impact on nickel would be considerably less; it 

 could depend upon the response of the Interna- 

 tional Nickel Company to the new source of 

 supply. In any event, it seems clear that manganese 

 nodules do have the potential for taking some 

 markets away from onshore sources, and, if they 

 did, the impact on at least the higher cost sources 

 could be disastrous. 



The several commodities that can be recovered 

 from seawater— sodium and sodium compounds, 

 potassium compounds, and strontium— can be 

 treated together. In each case, the conclusions 

 must be that the seas form so large a reserve that 

 the scale of an economic recovery plant would 

 form the only limit on output. In other words, 

 marine resources could dominate the markets if 

 enough, or if large enough, plants were built. If all 

 the chemicals were recovered from, say, a nuclear 

 power-desalination plant, more than enough of 

 these commodities would be recovered to satisfy 

 U.S. needs. 



WhUe only a small proportion of our salt is 

 recovered from the sea today, and almost none of 

 our potassium and strontium, the potential cer- 

 tainly exists to alter the situation. However, the 

 prospects vary. Sodium is the most abundant 

 metal in seawater and common salt could provide 

 the greatest revenue from recovery; yet it is also 

 remarkably cheap to mine from onshore sources. 

 The market impact might well be reflected in a fall 

 in price and possibly in the closing of some of the 

 older conventional mines. The outcome is not 

 presently clear. 



David B. Brooks, Low Grade and Nonconventional 

 Sources of Manganese (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 

 for Resources for the Future, Inc., 1966). 



Assuming salt can be recovered profitably, it is 

 probable that other metals wiQ also be extracted; 

 and, conversely, without salt recovery the others 

 are not likely to be extracted. World demand for 

 potassium compounds is climbing more rapidly 

 than the demand for phosphorous. If the new 

 source of supply does not enter the market too 

 rapidly, it may find its way without substituting 

 for onshore sources. Moreover, the new onshore 

 sources are already forcing older conventional 

 mines out of production and, representing very 

 sizable investments themselves, they are likely to 

 search out a way to accommodate the new source 

 in the least disruptive way. Finally, in the case of 

 strontium, seawater sources could flood the mar- 

 ket; if production began in earnest, it would 

 probably force out of business all of the relatively 

 few producers of strontium minerals. 



There is less to be said about the remaining 

 commodities. The potential of recovering some of 

 the high-barium muds is remote and onshore 

 sources seem able to take care of requirements. It 

 is unlikely that the proportion of sulphur re- 

 covered from sub-sea Frasch deposits will increase 

 because of the growth in production from non- 

 Frasch sources such as sour gas. Even if the 

 proportion does rise, the demand for sulphur is 

 expected to continue to grow strongly enough that 

 any reasonable increase in marine production 

 could be accommodated without significant long- 

 term market impact. As for heavy minerals, 

 including diamond, ocean production seems likely 

 to remain a significant but not dominant part of 

 supply. The situation parallels that of sulphur; 

 barring an unforeseen drop in demand, ocean 

 sources will hold their own and perhaps gain 

 somewhat on conventional sources but without 

 disruptive effects in the marketplace. 



G. Legal Environment in Which Mineral Resources 

 Can Be Exploited 



The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act of 

 August 7, 1953 and the 1958 Geneva Convention 

 on the Continental Shelf constitute the principal 

 body of the law dealing with the exploitation of 

 offshore mineral resources beyond the limits of 

 jurisdiction of the individual States. 



The jurisdiction of States has been fixed (by 

 the Submerged Lands Act of June 1953) at three 

 nautical miles from shore except along Texas and 



VIM 14 



