III. Physical Oceanographic Components of the Global Program 



There are several program areas where significant advances could be realized. 



1 . Interannual Variability of the Tropical Oceans 

 and Global Atmosphere (TOGA). 



The TOGA program is one of two major ocean climate projects formulated internationally as part 

 of the World Climate Research Program. TOGA began in January 1985 and will last for ten 

 years. Project objectives are: 



(1) to determine to what extent the time dependent behavior of the tropical ocean/global 



atmosphere system is predictable on time scales of months to years and to understand the 

 mechanism of this behavior; and 



(2) to study the feasiblity of modeling the coupled ocean-atmosphere system for the purpose 

 of predicting its variations on time scales of months to years. 



As presently formulated, there are three major oceanographic thrusts to TOGA. They include an 

 oceanographic monitoring program to provide a description of month-to-month variability of 

 the temperature, circulation, and pressure fields of the tropical ocean; an air-sea flux 

 measurement program to provide a description of month-to-month variations of fluxes of 

 momentum, heat, and moisture across the air-sea interface; and development of tropical ocean 

 circulation models and associated techniques for data assimilation. 



As part of the core programs, we expect that about $4M will be devoted to tropical 

 oceanography/TOGA on a continuing basis. We consider that participation by the academic ocean 

 sciences community in TOGA activities sponsored by NSF should increase to about three times 

 this level by FY 1992. About half a ship-year would be needed to support this additional 

 activity. We note that Atmospheric Science will sponsor a similar initiative for meteorological 

 studies, and that the Foundation is likely to have special responsibilities for Indian Ocean/TOGA 

 studies. 



As part of TOGA, an El Nino rapid response study has been developed. Its purpose is to obtain 

 additional information on atmospheric and oceanographic (physical, chemical, and biological) 

 changes which occur during El Nino. This would be accomplished by redirecting some resources 

 to the Eastern Pacific, but additional funding will also be required in the amount of $1M per 

 year for three years for collection, analysis, and interpretation of oceanographic data, and one 

 ship-year on an Oceanus-class vessel. 



2. World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). WOGE is the second major ocean 

 experiment planned as part of the World Climate Research Program. Many important problems 

 of climate, ocean chemistry, and biology could be solved given the ability to characterize and 

 model the general circulation of the ocean. However, the ocean is a chaotic fluid with temporal 

 and spatial variability on all scales; the lack of obsen/ations needed to define important time and 

 space scales for surface forcing and dynamical response constitutes the main reason for our 

 present inability to characterize and understand the general circulation of the ocean. 



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