temperature data, more accurate methods of predicting the thermal 

 structure resulting from a given loss of heat, Qg , at the 

 surface are possible. Such methods already have been devised 

 by Zubov (1933) and Defant ( igl4-9 ) . Detailed descriptions and 

 examples are given in the references and, since the methods 

 were not employed in any of the examples used in this report, 

 will not be repeated here. Essentially, the technique Involves 

 dividing a column of water into several small layers and, 

 by successively mixing deeper and deeper layers, computing a 

 new distribution of temperature, salinity, and density, as well 

 as the amount of heat necessarily lost to the ocean to bring 

 about this convection. In this way, it is possible to stop 

 the process at the layer where this amount of heat loss is 

 equal to the given amount Qe. 



5, Mixing processes; Turbulent mixing 



We now have arrived at a predicted thermal structure 

 which includes the effects of radiation, exchange of heat with 

 the atmosphere, and convection. Let this temperature distri- 

 bution be called Tc(z). Depending on the amount of convection, 

 this temperature distribution may or may not include a mixed 

 layer, v;hich may be called Dq, The remaining problem is to 

 determine whether there will be enough turbulence generated by 

 the stress of wind or sea to cause the water to be mixed to 

 a depth greater than Dg. 



No adequate practical techniques for attacking this pro- 

 blem exist in the literature. However, a possible approach 

 to the problem was presented In an earlier progress report 



16 



