TEMPERATURE (°F) 

 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 



FIGURE 9. CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE DISTRI- 

 BUTION DUE TO MIXING, 20-27 APRIL 1951. 



TEMPERATURE (T) 

 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 



FIGURE 10 BT TRACE, 2000Z, 27 APRIL 1951 



principles of equation (1?) and figure 

 2, Figure 9 shows the results of this 

 adjustment; the final forecast sound- 

 ing for the evening of 27 April Is 

 shown by the solid line. Figure 10 

 shows a BT observation which may be 

 used as a verification of this fore~ 

 cast, having been taken at 2000Z on 

 27 April. Except for a slight dis- 

 crepancy in surface temperature, the 

 agreement between the predicted and 

 observed temperature distribution must 

 be considered good. 



If the depth of the thermocllne 

 as predicted above would remain con- 

 stant for a reasonable period of time, 

 it could be concluded that a possible 

 method of predicting the thermal struc- 

 ture had been developed. However, 

 another factor remains which requires 

 investigation. It is noted that the 

 thermocllne oscillates in a periodic 

 manner which in no way can be attri- 

 buted to the effect of meteorological 

 variables. It was considered that 

 this problem must be considered before 

 adequate means of predicting the thermal 

 31 



