Ch. 3— Minerals Supply, Demand, and Future Trends • 93 



Table 3-4.— Forecasts for U.S. Chromium Demand in 2000 

 (thousand tons of contained chromium) 



2000 



End use 1983 Low Probable High 



Chemical 62 90 V\b 121 



Refractory 20 27 35 47 



Fabricated metal products 21 60 80 100 



Machinery 18 75 100 130 



Transportation 39 80 100 130 



Other 169 300 390 500 



SOURCE: J. Papp, '■Chrommm" Mineral Facts and Problems— 1985 Edition. Bulletin 675 (Washington. DC: U.S. Bureau of Mines, 

 1986), p. 152. 



Mines report foresees an increase in domestic chro- 

 mium demand at a rate of about 6.5 percent per 

 year between 1983 and 2000 (table 3-4)," from ap- 

 proximately 329,000 tons in 1983 to between 

 632,000 tons and about one million tons by 2000, 

 with the most probable estimate being 815,000 tons. 

 About 83 percent of the probable estimated demand 

 in 2000 is expected to be used in metals; 13 per- 

 cent in chemicals; and 4 percent in refractories. 



Based on trends in chromium consumption and 

 use, another Bureau of Mines report, produced in 

 cooperation with basic industry analysts of the De- 

 partment of Commerce, foresees a different de- 

 mand scenario. This scenario is based on the the- 

 ory that demand for ferrochromium is largely 

 determined by the demand for stainless steel. Do- 

 mestic production of stainless steel has remained 

 relatively stable since 1980 at between 1.7 million 

 and 1.8 million tons per year, with the exception 

 of 1982 when it dipped to 1 .2 million tons. Although 

 chromium content of specific alloy and stainless 

 steels remains stable, the use of high-chromium 

 content steels has decreased in volume.^* 



There is significant potential for reducing the 

 consumption of chromium through substitution by 

 low-chromium steels, titanium, or plastics for stain- 

 less steel in less-demanding applications. The Na- 

 tional Materials Advisory Board (NMAB) deter- 

 mined that 60 percent of the chromium used in 

 stainless steel could be saved in a supply emergency 

 by the use of low-chromium substitutes or no-chro- 

 mium materials that either currently exist or could 

 be developed within 10 years. ^^ Only 20 to 30 per- 



cent of the chromium currently used domestically 

 in stainless steel is considered to be irreplaceable. 

 Substitution may also displace some of the chro- 

 mite used in refractories with the use of low-chro- 

 mite bricks or dolomite bricks. Substitutes for chro- 

 mium in pigments and plating are also available, 

 although at some sacrifice in desirable properties. 



Use of chromium in chemicals generally reflects 

 a slow but steady growth in chromium consump- 

 tion, with expanded capacity of the chemical in- 

 dustry offsetting a decrease in the intensity of use 

 of chromium. The use of chromite-containing 

 refractories has significantly declined as the result 

 of technological improvements in steel furnaces; 

 open hearth furnaces have given way to electric arc 

 furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces (BOF) in the 

 steelmaking process. As a result of these changes 

 in the intensity of use of chromium, the combined 

 Bureau of Mines and Department of Commerce 

 report forecasts a reduction in chromium demand 

 from about 330,000 tons in 1983 to 275,000 tons 

 in 1993.36 



New technology for processing chromite ores has 

 also increased the world supply of usable chromite 

 reserves. Improvements in technologies to recover 

 chromium from laterite deposits may also make 

 low-grade deposits, some located in the western 

 United States, more desirable for chromium recov- 

 ery, but probably still not competitive. 3'' 



"Papp, " Chromiuni," Mineral Facts and Problems — 1985, p. 152. 



"Domestic Consumption Trends, 1972-82, and Forecasts to 1993 

 for Twelve Major Metals, Open File Report 27-86 (Washington DC: 

 U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1986), p. 7. 



^^National Materials Advisory Board, Contingency Plans for Chro- 



mium Utilization, NMAB-335 (Washington, DC: National Academy 

 of Sciences, 1978). 



!'«Ibid., p. 44. 



''A. Silverman, J. Schmidt, P. Queneau, et al., Strategic and Crit- 

 ical Mineral Position of the United States with Respect to Chromium, 

 Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese, and Platinum, OTA Contract Report 

 (Washington, DC; Office of Technology Assessment, 1983), p. 133; 

 see also, H. Salisbury, M. Wouden, and M. Shirts, Beneficiation of 

 Low-Grade California Chromite Ores, RI 8592 (Washington, DC: 

 U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1982), p. 15. 



