Ch. 3— Minerals Supply, Demand, and Future Trends • 103 



The PGM potential of the Stillwater Complex 

 in Montana is higher than that of the other known 

 domestic deposits. Stillwater PGMs are found in 

 conjunction with nickel and copper. The Stillwater 

 Mining Company, which is capable of producing 

 500 tons of ore per day, began producing PGMs 

 in March 1987, but the mineral concentrates are 

 being shipped abroad for refining to metal. Nearly 

 80 percent of the PGMs in Stillwater ores is pal- 

 ladium, and the remainder is mostly platinum. 

 Platinum generally brings several times the price 

 of palladium. The Salmon River deposit in Alaska 

 is an alluvial gravel placer that is estimated to con- 

 tain about 500,000 troy ounces of recoverable plati- 

 num. The Ely Spruce and Minnamax deposits in 

 northeastern Minnesota are estimated to contain 

 less than 800,000 troy ounces of platinum at the 

 demonstrated level.'* 



World resources are estimated to be about 3.3 

 billion troy ounces of PGMs. The world reserve 

 base is about 2.1 billion troy ounces, with the 

 Republic of South Africa controlling 90 percent of 

 the reserves. Other major reserves are found in the 

 U.S.S.R. and Canada. The United States has less 

 than 10 percent of the world's total PGM resources. 



Domestic Production 



Domestic firms produced approximately 5,000 

 troy ounces of PGMs in 1986, all as byproducts 

 from copper refining. The Republic of South Africa 

 and the U.S.S.R. dominate world production of 

 PGMs; in 1986 South Africa's mine production was 

 4 million ounces and the Soviet Union's was 3.7 



million ounces of PGMs. Together they accounted 

 for 95 percent of world production. It is expected 

 that existing world reserves will have no problem 

 in meeting cumulative demand through 2000. 



Future Demand and Technological Trends 



U.S. demand for PGMs in 2000 is expected to 

 be between 2 million ounces and 3.3 million ounces 

 (table 3-11) with the probable demand at about 2.9 

 million ounces. Domestic demand is forecast to 

 grow at a rate of 2.5 percent annually between 1983 

 and 2000. Demand in the rest of the world is ex- 

 pected to increase more rapidly — perhaps 3 per- 

 cent annually — due to the introduction of catalytic 

 auto emission controls in Europe and Australia, and 

 to the Japanese and U.S. emphasis on developing 

 fuel cell technology as an alternative power source. 



For most PGM end uses, the intensity of use has 

 diminished since 1972. '^ Although intensity of use 

 has declined, consumption has generally increased 

 as a result of the growth of the automotive, elec- 

 tronic, and medical industries that consume plati- 

 num, palladium, and iridium. Since 1982, inves- 

 tors and speculators have been purchasing large 

 quantities of platinum coins, bars, and ingots. 



There are opportunities to reduce imports by im- 

 proved recycling and substitution. About 97 per- 

 cent of the PGMs used for petroleum refining and 

 85 percent of the catalysts used for chemicals and 

 pharmaceutical manufacturing are recycled. Auto- 

 mobile catalysts are recycled much less frequently. 



nbid., p. 7. 



''''Domestic Consumption Trends, 1972-82, and Forecasts to 1993 

 for Twelve Major Metals, p. 96. 



Table 3-11.— Forecast of Demand for Platinum-Group Metals in 2000 



2000 



Material 1983 Low Probable High 



(thousand troy ounces) 



Platinum 797 900 1 ,300 1 ,400 



Palladium 922 1,000 1,400 1,500 



Rhodium 44 50 70 80 



Ruthenium 145 140 210 230 



Iridium 5 5 10 20 



Osmium 1 1 2 4 



Total platinum-group 1,914 2,000^ 2,900 3,300 



^Total differs from individual forecasts due to rounding. 



SOURCE: J. Loebenstein, "Platinum-Group Metals," Mineral Facts and PraWems—r985 (Washington, DC: US. Bureau of Mines, 

 1986), p. 611. 



